Assume govt spends. Private sector earns a deposit. Bank uses this to purchase a bond or bill. Their B/S expands & M2 rises. Contrast, when govt sells bill to pension fund... deposits swapped. No rise in bank B/S, etc

That's the point..why?

Blast! Now he tells us!!

The Federal Reserve is kicking off a rate-cutting cycle with core PCE NO-where even close to the 2014-2019 norm. Clearly, they have chosen a new, higher inflation target in reality. They will publicly say this in the coming years.

The Certainties: More Inflation … and Higher Taxes open.substack.com/pub/capitalwar…

It helps them sell Treasuries!

Latest 'Capital Wars' Substack capitalwars.substack.com/p/the-certaint…

Sir Norman Angell is reaching a wider audience! Hyperinflation is linked to persistent inability to correct fiscal deficits in democracies buying corporate and voter support.

Implied vol tends to reflect downside risks more

Well done Hélène Rey!

Where Is The World Economy Heading? open.substack.com/pub/capitalwar…

OMG 0.1% Nothing else to write about??

Thanks to Alan Dunne and TopTradersLive.com Top Traders Unplugged | GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell on Podbean, check it out! podbean.com/ea/dir-czb5w-2…

Thanks to Alan Dunne and TopTradersLive.com GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell player.captivate.fm/episode/62457d…

Great new post from Macroedge about #USD #BTC fxmacroedge.substack.com/p/weak-economi…

Lets be clear that a rising #MOVE ie bond vol (black line inverted) is not positive for #liquidity over coming 12m because of lower collateral multiplier. Not a problem yet... but well worth watching The Bitcoin Layer

#yieldcurve is a flaky indication of #recession as last 26m have shown. Bond traders worry more about a flat. humped term structure. Need to look at #termpremia and figure out what is driving any steepening or flattening. IMHO best work on bond market series by Antti Ilmanen

Rising debt and monetary inflation are setting the stage for a potential boom in gold prices—possibly reaching $25,000 an ounce by 2050, according to Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital. Listen to his chat with Alan Dunne! toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/the-gl… #investing

This is not a forecast but simply shows how the US #credit markets (broken line) see the #economy as measured by the headline ISM Index. Credits lead the economy by a few months and statistically show strong causality. They don't envision upcoming #recession

Granger causality test correct: 1 way causal from 2 to 12 months forward