Iranologists saying: "The Ayatollah is under extreme pressure, but no collapse is imminent." Isn't this exactly what an imminent collapse looks like? One day you're the Supreme Leader. The next you're just another tenant in Putin's guest house, asking Assad for the WiFi

After the 1979 Revolution, the new Islamic Republic didn't fire the Shah's notorious secret police (SAVAK). The Ayatollah hired them, renamed the agency VEVAK, and told them to keep doing the exact same job. So tonight, don't shed a tear for the agents of Iran's Ministry of

For centuries, monarchs ruled Persia. Then in 1921, a military officer named Reza Khan seized power with British cash. By 1925, he crowned himself King: Reza Shah Pahlavi. The Pahlavis ruled the country. But the British ruled Iranian oil. By 1950, Iran was pumping 660,000

Why aren't oil prices rallying on the chaos in Iran? Iran is a major producer. It sits on the Strait of Hormuz. Oil (WTI) today is $59. Normally, regime change implies supply risk which implies $100 oil. Not this time. The market isn't scared of a shortage. It is terrified

When oil price up? Everyone seems to be bearish on crude oil. The market sees a global supply glut in 2026. Crude (WTI) is at $60. There is the possibility prices drift down to $40. In my previous post, I talked about second order effects and why the current situation in Iran

Why would Saudi Arabia this morning allegedly refuse to allow US military aircraft to overfly their country on the way to Iran? On paper, Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) are mortal enemies. The reality is that in the 2026 oil market, the Saudis need the Ayatollah to stay.

Just two days before the US Air Force flattened Fordow and Natanz nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran on June 21, 2025, President Trump spoke. June 19, 2025 Trump: "I see a substantial chance for negotiations. I will decide on any action within the next two weeks." Oil prices

Drilling activity in the UK North Sea has dropped to its lowest level since the modern domestic oil and gas industry began in 1964. Why? Because the UK enacted a stealth nationalization that would make Venezuela's Hugo Chavez blush. The UK didn't send in the army. They sent in

The business of oil in Iran goes back a long time. 2,500 years ago, Persians built temples around surface hydrocarbon seeps, revering the Eternal Fire. In the modern era, before Saudi Arabia, before Iraq, and before Kuwait, there was the D'Arcy Concession in Persia. William

In case you missed it. Why are two Gulf allies suddenly asking the US not interfere in Iran? Two simple reasons: 1. Saudi: A regime change would remove sanctions, allowing Iranian oil stored in floating tankers to be sold, collapsing oil prices. x.com/morgan_downey/… 2.

The Hamm Indicator just flipped in oil markets A few days ago (Jan 16, 2026), Harold Hamm, the legend who invented the Bakken shale boom, announced he is halting all drilling in North Dakota. His reason? "There’s no need to drill it when margins are basically gone." When the

You might drive an EV, but you are likely covered in oil right now. Today, 75% of all clothing globally is made from synthetic fibers (polyester, nylon, acrylic). But for the first 80 years of the oil age, this wasn't possible. There was a gap of nearly 80 years between the

Natural gas prices in the US are up 40% over the past 2 days. From $3 to almost $5 per MMBtu today, Wednesday, Jan 21, 2026. A sudden, unexpected cold weather snap has hit. While the public looks at the price, for traders, it is that time of year again: Widowmaker Season. Only

US buildup against Iran is now suggesting permanent residency, not a surgical strike. Supreme Leader Rubio would be a big negative for oil prices.

Why is the physical cash (spot) market for US Henry Hub natural gas trading at up to $16 while the futures price shows only $5? Because you are comparing a single day's panic to a monthly average. The Feb futures contract is for ratable delivery. Ratable means it buys nat gas

The US military is in position off the Iranian coast today (Friday Jan 23, 2026). What is the Oil Weekend Effect? Traders buy oil Friday afternoon to hedge against a weekend war. When the world is still standing on Monday morning (technically oil opens Sunday evening NY

Everything is locked and loaded for a US assault of Iran. Now oil markets just have to wait until next Thursday. Why? Asymmetric surprise attacks by dissidents favor weekends (specifically Saturday), when a target nation's military staffing is lowest and religious/social

Gold just reached $5,000 per troy ounce. Is this gold price rally sustainable? Historical indicators say NO. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation as well as a store of value. However, gold prices in 2026 have decoupled from the real economy. Here is the implied gold

Oil has broken out over Iran, rallying from $60 to $65 (WTI). The oil market is sniffing out the transition from preparation to strike. Historically Thursdays are the day on which invasions begin. But there is a problem. UAE (this past Monday) and Saudi Arabia (Tuesday) just