I find this chart really scary. Not only has global trade stagnated over the last two decades, the front running of tariffs did not meaningfully matter.

Sometimes, the answer is simple for the #dollar. Just KISS.

There is something alluring to me about #palladium. Maybe it is that the #gold and #silver rush that everyone is focused on, has left this beautiful underdog undervalued. Why undervalued - demand/supply fundamentals are very compelling.

#Palladium with another +3.49% today Yeeez, who would have known.... What a beautiful #LONG play there. Patterns matter.

I think the world is overly focused on #inflation while the real risk is deflation, and a melt down in bond yields. Exhibit A: The UK. Let's see what the #Fed, #BOE, and the #BOJ say next week.

The ECB slighlty hawkish message yesterday did little to lift EUR/USD. Maybe, the Fed cut next week will lift the dollar? If history is any guide, it will.

💡 Why cut rates with full employment and inflation still high? In his debut MarketWatch column, our Daily Insights Chief Strategist Felix Vezina-Poirier explains: 📉 Job market momentum has weakened, with unemployment drifting higher 🛑 The latest inflation spike looks temporary as

To engineer a soft landing, the #BoC will need to deliver a dovish rate cut today. That will further help stabilize our favorite recession indicators that are quite too high.

The market has priced in too-dovish a Fed path for 2025. Repricing this will support a short-term dollar bounce, especially as the DXY breakdown failed today and momentum is forming a positive divergence.

DXY has failed to break down despite a lot of USD-negative headlines (politics, macro deterioration) in the past few weeks, today being the latest example! Counterintuitive but key takeaway: You can't rely on macro theory as much once it's priced in

Between the BoC, the Fed and the Norges Bank, the latter has so far absolutely delivered the most hawkish rate cut I have seen. If you are bearish the dollar long term, just buy #NOK. Why - it is absolutely cheap.

Has the Fed effectively abandoned their 2% inflation target given their decision to further ease monetary policy? And if so, is this being driven by political pressure? I have been critical of the Fed’s decision to cut, but I think the answer to both questions is “No”. Why? The

A sophisticated client asked me if the rise in #stablecoins will threaten the stronghold/stability of the US financial system. There is no simple answer to this, but a KISS answer according to the chart below is #crypto has not done that yet. I will do more research on this.

I love that the precious metals mania will now start to rotate into the underdogs, like #palladium, #platinum and #silver as these hard-working metals steal the safe haven status of US Treasuries and the dollar, as shown below. They are however, due for a correction.

Once again, US growth has started to outperform the rest of the world.

Is Fed easing a mistake? Jonathan LaBerge weighs in during BCA Live & Unfiltered (BLU).

If you believe the US AI boom is going to continue, then yes buy bitcoin.

I was surprised by the weak real wage growth numbers from Japan overnight, given this chart that shows that unions are doing everything to encourage rising nominal wages for the average Japanese. The #BoJ should step in and contain inflation.

#gold has overtaken the #euro as a share of overall global reserves.

What matters for the path of bond yields is not the level of inflation, but the change relative to expectations, as the chart below shows. From that perspective, a dovish speech by Powell was justified today (albeit on the basis of a weakening labor market).