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In honor of The Economist cover this week... A sampling of 50 years of inflation on the cover of major magazines (18 in total) [1/6]

For the fifth year in a row, we are honored to win Prospect's Prospect Think Tank award in Economic & Financial Affairs! 🎉 We are proud of our work and look forward to continuing to bring you the best in international economic research.

Treasury’s latest Foreign Exchange Report kept me away from today’s FOMC meeting. I’ll need to catch up tomorrow. Meanwhile, I welcome Treasury’s fingering of the Swiss while denouncing their call on Vietnam and omission of Singapore. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

New book with Olivier Blanchard on what to do about inequality, with lots of great contributions from leading scholars drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/combating-ineq…

Why I am concerned about the size of the Biden 1.9 trillion package. A closer look at the output gap, the multipliers, and the risk of inflation. bit.ly/2ZpQvzg

Both the #FederalReserve and the #ECB are exploring new territories. No surprise: neither wants to end as the high priest of a forgotten deity, both want to contribute to tackling pressing challenges. My Project Syndicate column (thread) prosyn.org/jjzjkEZ

US Inflation: Set to Take-off? Our analysis suggests that 1960s style inflation take-off is "unlikely." Inflation is projected to be in the 2%-3% range for 2023. Full piece here: voxeu.org/article/us-inf…

Symposium on the Washington Consensus in the latest Journal of Economic Perspectives . . .

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP16583 Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World Kristin Forbes MIT Sloan School of Management CEPR, Joseph Gagnon Joseph Gagnon Peterson Institute, Christopher Collins Chris Collins Peterson Institute ow.ly/738c50Gi0Gn #CEPR_IMF, #CEPR_MEF

Strong support for a nonlinear Phillips curve: when slack is negative and inflation is greater than 3 percent, reductions in unemployment correspond to higher inflation, from Kristin J Forbes, Joseph Gagnon, and Christopher G. Collins nber.org/papers/w29323

Great thread by Nick Bunker as always covering the #JOLTS release. The job vacancy rate ticked down from 6.9% to 6.6%, and the vacancy to unemployment ratio from 1.9 to 1.8. Here's a few more thoughts:

A new "Big Take" on challenges confronting the Fed is up on the Bloomberg website and Terminal. Proud to have co-authored with @TomOrlik. bloomberg.com/features/2022-…

I am back at the Council on Foreign Relations, and have returned to commenting on emerging market vulnerabilities ... See this piece by Chelsey Dulaney of the WSJ wsj.com/articles/emerg…

To my students, and to all students everywhere: Have a happy & safe winter break!

A nice summary of how we got to 2% and where we should go next. nytimes.com/2023/03/24/bus…

Today at 9:45 AM ET: Drawing on CEPR's new book Monetary Policy Responses to the Post-Pandemic Inflation, experts explore how central banks across the globe responded to these challenges. Featuring Olivier Blanchard, Angel Ubide, & more. Register: piie.com/events/2024/mo…

Measurement issues of nonfarm payroll should rise onto the top of Fed's policy work agenda. For this May's nonfarm, we took a different approach to forecasting nonfarm payrolls, by forecasting both the "false" number, and the "true number" (the latter guided our unemployment

TOMORROW, Sept. 27 at 1 PM ET: Jason Furman delivers the 2nd annual Richard N. Cooper Lecture, "In Defense of the Dismal Science," focusing on neoliberalism, post-neoliberalism, populism, & the stakes for economic policy. Register to watch live: piie.com/events/2024/se…

Underlying core CPI inflation is around 0.25% m/m and the trend continues to be for inflation to slow gradually. There will be the usual interruption of that in Q1 '25, but that - like in early 2023 and 2024 - will just be residual seasonality via start-of-year price resets...