So many traders mistake reversal trading for top picking Looking for a reversal? Cool. (I currently am). Stabbing at tops? Literally the LEAST effective way to trade it... Yet that's what so many are doing Let the reversal form, then get involved.

$TSLA 2D Still want one more low to complete the large 1W flat... I'll be looking for a major bullish reversal after that next/final low, but I'm not convinced the bottom is in here

$OSCR 1W This is the part where prior breakout chasers will average down at "trend line support", and likely feel the pressure through the rest of ((C)) - stopping out into the lows.... Because flats = traps

$ES $SPX $SPY 90m - July13 Still looking for one more short term high from this triangle, with high exhaustion risk to follow (see quoted tweet) Notice the similarity in this 90m structure to June's 4H triangle...

I traded one on the 15sec this morning You can see them on monthly charts And everything between. They're an inherent part of market structure on every timeframe So, it all depends on what timeframe your context/thesis is on - and whether you're a swing trader or a scalper

We often lag our theoretical results not by lacking wins, but in adding to drawdown During low opportunity situations, we add an extra loss/mistake here & there. Disaster? No. But it adds up. Yes, we're human. Mistakes happen. But our asymptotic pursuit is to close this gap.

$NQ 5m Nice expanded flat this morning, with a quite an exaggerated B-wave (which IS allowed) False/corrective rally into open -> Buyers exhaust/sellers step in -> Liquidity taken, strong buyers step back in -> Rally to objective Flats = Traps

Tracking nicely so far, no changes.

$ES $SPX $SPY 30m - July15 New high reached, followed by today's bearish reversal Sellers have taken control of the *short term* situation, but nothing more (yet) I'm seeking 6227 as the next objective. Getting there would be a good step towards building the larger reversal

For traders taking SMALL wins and aiming for a HIGH win rate... Consider some math: At an average win of 0.5R (risk $100 to make $50), with a **99% WINRATE**... You're expectancy is 0.49R per-trade. Nothing wrong with that, but that is the absolute maximum possible. Compare

Key juncture in the short term, so I'll share part of the morning update: 5 down off yesterday's high... w1? or C of a flat? - Bearish revstruc/lower high here = 1,2 downside resumption - Acceptance over 6311 = Flat, w5 in progress for one more high I'm ready to roll w/ either

$ES $SPY 5m Sellers prevailed & found the reversal structure... new lows now. Good job bears.