civicleadership.utexas.edu/opportunities/

Analysis of Polymarket data suggests that a bet on "Powell out" increases the likelihood of a bet on an interest cut at the next FOMC meeting ("the revenge of time inconsistency"). But it also leads to higher expected 10-year Treasury yields and greater recession risk.

The real issue with Ha-Joon Chang’s FT op-ed last week isn’t his economics—it’s the cartoonish caricature of Catholic theology in the Middle Ages, straight out of an outdated high school textbook or a bad History Channel doc. The 12th and 13th centuries were among the most

👇 Thread on research topics at FRBs. Of course, another angle to consider is what would happen if the FRBs were full of people doing research on right-wing coded topics and causes.

Some things that happened in the time between when I posted the first draft of this paper and when it got published: - It won U-M Economics's best paper prize - It won PAA's Dorothy S. Thomas Award - It was featured on NPR's morning edition - I got engaged (continued)

I’ve been thinking about this op-ed and all the replies it received, and all I can think about is how many people misunderstand the economics profession. The general belief that economics is a homogenous group strikes me as mistaken. In fact, while I can’t say much about

Today's dissent by Bowman and Waller in some historical context: -- two governor dissents never occurred with Powell as Chair -- two FOMC dissents have happened before (when Reserve Bank Presidents dissented) (source: stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…)

This dovetails with my new article, “Children’s Citizenship and the Built Environment.” In short: give children the space to play! Link in comment:

Now available at Cliometrica, my paper with Alexis Akira-Toda on why we should abandon Pareto interpolation for estimating inequality from limited tabular (especially if the number of categories is less than 10) data. A 🧵on a technical paper

Media coverage of inflation has a significant and asymmetric effect on consumer inflation expectations, from Carola Conces Binder, Pascal Frank, and Jane M. Ryngaert nber.org/papers/w34088

I just learned a new word. Do I need to change the title of the paper now?

I had the privilege & honor of interviewing Gov Waller in 2021. He is a smart insightful economic analyst who understands & believes in the Fed's mandate. He'd be a great choice for Fed chair. If Trump selects him, POTUS will have got it right. omfif.org/videos/omfif-l…

What you see on the news tonight might change how you feel about prices tomorrow. In a new NBER working paper, UT Austin's Carola Conces Binder and coauthors show TV coverage of inflation quickly shifts public expectations—then fades. Read the paper here: nber.org/system/files/w…