Firms' selling price expectations have risen to their highest since mid-2019 and imply core inflation will rise back toward 2% this year

Unseasonably warm weather and strong demand helped push housing starts to a near-record high in January, of over 280,000 annualised #cdnecon

The home sales-to-new listing ratio surged to a record high in January, partly because the latest lockdowns weighed on new listings. As the early-2000s period shows, the jump in the SNL ratio doesn't necessarily mean house price inflation will accelerate dramatically #cdnecon

Small business selling price expectations rose again in February and imply core inflation will soon return to 2%

The jump in the CFIB Business Barometer in March, to a 10-year high, bodes well for the recovery #cdnecon

Firms' selling price expectations jumped in March and present an upside risk to core inflation #cdnecon

The latest Business Outlook Survey points to a strong recovery #cdnecon

Housing starts surged to a record high in March, driven by strong gains in Ontario and BC #cdnecon

Firms' selling price expectations jumped again in April

A jump in energy inflation explained most of the rise in headline inflation to 3.4% in April, but inflationary pressures are emerging elsewhere as well. In fact, the m/m% rises in every category in April were consistent with annual inflation of more than 2% #cdnecon

Residential investment has, for the first time, overtaken business investment as a share of GDP #cdnecon

The sales-to-new listing ratio declined again in June, although still points to very strong gains in house prices #cdnecon

What a difference a doubling of mortgage rates makes - sales-to-new listing ratio in Toronto now pointing to house price declines

While Canada's labour market recovery has been impressive, GDP per capita is still more than 1% below the pre-pandemic level, in sharp contrast to the US where it is more than 2% higher

Consumer confidence plunged to crisis-era lows last week and seems likely to drop further following the Bank of Canada's 100 bp hike yesterday

The weakness of employment since June is largely due to a drop in public sector employment, although it still accounts for a far larger share of total employment than before the pandemic

New home sales in Toronto are now weaker than during both the global financial crisis and the pandemic, pointing to a sharp downturn in construction activity in 2023

The Toronto home sales-to-new listing ratio, a balance between demand and supply, has surged rapidly above its pandemic peak. This time its about a lack of supply rather than elevated demand, but the direction for prices is clear