From boom to bust and back again. Renewable energy stocks have broken out once again as the global bull market broadens out. But there's one thing different about this breakout (see next chart below)

The Relative Value Trinity... -Small vs Large -Value vs Growth -Rest of World vs USA There are major opportunities (and risks?) hiding here in plain sight -- Smart asset allocators take note: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the…

Interestingly, the tendency for Bitcoin to seasonally slump around Sep/Oct echoes what we see in risk assets in general (yes BTC is a risk asset). [+the Nov/Dec YER] (and mirrors the price action of defensives)

A few things... 1. the stockmarket is not the economy 2. price leads fundamentals 3, price moves faster than fundamentals Macro is interesting and fun and important, but if I had to pick I would take Valuations + Technicals over macro data (as a multi-asset strategist).

As always a thoughtful piece from Callum Thomas. Last week I noted his chart showing credit spreads increase seasonally at this point, and you already know that August started a seasonal increase in the VIX (if not, it's an easy Google). This week he looks at historical

gold valuation indicators 🧐

#Commodities are getting ready for a big beautiful breakout --maybe a well-timed Fed rate cut will help get things moving and make inflation great again...

I know what you're thinking -- this is actually fine and easily explained away by historically High Profit Margins. And profit margins are high, they're at a cyclical + structural high. But a Question for you though: what if profit margins start to come down?

what me worry?

yup!

Not perfect, but interesting. It seems that gold has been leading general commodities over the past years. Let's see if this holds.

Gold vs Major Assets See if you can spot the odd one out… 🤔