🚀 We’re excited to introduce Bo Pei, our Senior Equity Research Analyst at TradeUP Securities! Bo Pei, a Wall Street veteran & CFA Charterholder, has held key roles at Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. & SIG. With deep expertise in internet, EVs, & blockchain, he’s ready to elevate

Market attention is laser-focused on the potential tariff announcement scheduled for April 2 (next Wednesday). 市场目前关注的焦点是定于4月2日（下周三）的关税决定。 There are broadly two possible scenarios: 📌 Scenario 1: Tariff details clearly confirmed, removing uncertainty,

🔍What do you see in this chart (Margin Debt / M2 ratio vs. SPX)? Key observations: 📈Prior to each major market top (2000, 2007, 2021), the Margin Debt / M2 ratio rose significantly, indicating a buildup of leverage risk⚠️. 📉Following crises or bear markets, such as in 2008

US March Manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction at 49 (vs. 49.5 exp), raising fresh concerns about the economy. 🔻New Orders: down—tariff uncertainty delays demand 🧑‍🏭Employment: down—firms cutting hiring 💰Prices Paid: up—input costs surged to June 2022 highs due to

📉 Market volatility is off the charts. In just 2 weeks, the S&P 500 dropped over 10%—statistically a 3-sigma move. Add Monday’s open, and it hit 5-sigma levels. Yesterday saw a 7% intraday swing in 30 minutes on fake news. VIX >50, 3 days above 40. Extreme. Historically, these

📢 Trump just announced a 90-day tariff pause (10%) for countries that haven’t retaliated — while hiking tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. Exactly as expected. This aligns with what I wrote yesterday: U.S. allies get partial exemptions, but China faces unaffordable tariffs. Most

📉 Today on the macro front: U.S. March CPI came in softer than expected. Headline CPI: +2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% expected) Core CPI: +2.8% YoY (vs. 3.0% expected) Under normal circumstances, this would be a win for both markets and the Fed. But not this time. Why? Because the major

📰 Both the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported yesterday on the rationale behind Trump’s tariff pause. While the accuracy is hard to verify, these insights matter—because Trump moves markets. One quote from WSJ stands out: “Trump played his cards close to his vest…

Why I believe the U.S. will ultimately compromise with allies (not China) in its push to “reshore” manufacturing. On paper, the idea is simple: use tariffs to reduce the trade deficit and bring jobs home. But in practice? It’s nearly impossible. Let’s break it down.👇 👷‍♂️ Labor

🔁 Last week, I wrote that U.S. equities were likely to continue their short-term rebound. Today, I believe that rally is running out of steam—at least in terms of index level. Here’s the logic.👇 📆 On April 2 (after market close), Trump announced a 10% universal tariff. Markets

📊 The S&P 500 is trading at 19.6x forward P/E, placing it above the 80th percentile over the past 20 years. At the same time, 2025 EPS growth expectations remain at +10%. This suggests one thing: recession risk is not quite priced in. Let me break down why this matters.👇 🧠

📉 U.S. equities opened sharply lower today after a weaker-than-expected GDP print—but closed green. 📈 After hours, strong earnings from $MSFT and $META helped sentiment. Notably, Meta raised its full-year CapEx guidance from $60–65B → $64–72B, boosting AI chip stocks

📈 The S&P 500 has rebounded ~16% from its April 7 low and is now within 9% of its prior high. The most important event this week? Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. 🧵 1/ With last Friday’s strong payrolls report, the odds of a May rate cut are near zero (currently priced at 3.1%).

🧵I haven’t written anything in the past two weeks—for two reasons: 1. Earnings season is underway 2. At current levels, I find risk-reward in U.S. equities unattractive I’ve been watching gold and Bitcoin too, but haven’t seen compelling setups. That just changed—for