morningporridge.com/blog/governmen… Macro Economic Data paints an imperfect picture of the US economy – but the numbers are likely to be challenging in coming months. We should pay attention to them, but the underlying resilience of the US economy to disruption may yet surprise us! #markets

morningporridge.com/blog/governmen… “Americans usually do the right thing, after first exhausting every other possibility.” A new wind may be blowing in Washington. Trump has energetically bluffed and blustered his first 100 days, but now the wheels look loose. Time for some sackings and a

morningporridge.com/blog/investmen… Markets may become less frenetic now the initial Trump phase is over – but that doesn’t mean they get more stable. News flow and data will continue to show a world changing swiftly, where crisis stemming from US assets (watch Treasuries like a hawk),

morningporridge.com/blog/trade/mod… “The ability to predict what the world will look like in a few months is virtually impossible to say with any confidence. But…” This morning’s Porridge is given over to what my chum Rob Hillman’s modelling of the Pandemic economy teaches us about the

morningporridge.com/blog/governmen… “What President ever talks like that?” Trump was right: NATO had become an American Umbrella. Europe needs time to re-establish its own defence capacity – and that requires respect on both sides of the Atlantic to achieve security without further

morningporridge.com/blog/trade/uk-… “Deal in haste, repent at leisure.” The UK / US trade deal announced yesterday is what it is – a distraction. It’s half-baked, but better than nothing. It unravels some of the knots the US president has tied himself in, and will ease some immediate

morningporridge.com/blog/trade/the… Trump has not read Sun Tzu. “In the midst of chaos there is opportunity.”  Trump blinked. 42 days after “Liberation Day” China gets a 10% base tariff level, putting it on better trade terms than the EU? It was a ramble of conflicting narratives, but the

morningporridge.com/blog/fiscal-mo… Sir Keir Starmer has jumped on the populist bandwagon, pandering to voters convinced immigration is the UK’s greatest threat. Silly me… I thought it was the Russians, or jobs, or the economy. Aging nations need workers. #markets #investing #economy

morningporridge.com/blog/industry/… Boeing is slowly climbing its hill towards recovery. The question remains: can it remain relevant without a big capital pool to spend on developing the next generation of aircraft, in the face of new competition? #markets #investing #economy

morningporridge.com/blog/investmen… The last 4 months has been exhausting coping with change, uncertainty and chaos – yet markets have emerged basically unchanged. Nothing to worry about? Or… should we remain concerned as the consequences play out? #markets #investing #economy

morningporridge.com/blog/fiscal-mo… Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth's new book gives a masterclass

morningporridge.com/blog/nations/b… “It’s no good believing in Brexit if you can’t make it work…” The UK and Europe have signed a framework deal which should prove massively positive for both economies. It resets the UK’s place as a financial and politically sovereign nation close to the

morningporridge.com/blog/japan-2/j… "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in mighty battalions.” Japan’s Bond market may prove the dead canary in the coal mine warning of an imminent systemic global bond crisis. Although US stocks have staged a “Terminal Lucidity” recovery

morningporridge.com/blog/debt/the-… “There are gale warnings in Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth. Westerly 8-10. Very Rough. Rain. Poor.” When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a

morningporridge.com/blog/trade/los… “I was lost in France, and the vines were overflowing,” Global Trade is not just about governments and tariffs. Its about what individuals want to buy and how businesses set about selling their products. How these micro components of the global economy are

morningporridge.com/blog/tech/stor… What will the American mega-stocks be worth tomorrow? What will they be worth when Asian markets are larger, more competitive and more open, and Europe is closed to them? The Age of Trump has catalysed the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. Apple

morningporridge.com/blog/governmen… Markets and the global economy are subject to how the world is changing – get used to it. Trump is not the cause – he just one symptom of how geopolitics, politics and technology are all undergoing periodic change. #markets #investing #economy

morningporridge.com/blog/governmen… “The supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Yesterday, the UK unveiled its long-awaited Strategic Defence Review. The implications for markets, both for Bonds and Equity, and the cohesion of the West are massive. The SDR represents an

morningporridge.com/blog/fiscal-mo… “This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.” The market is full of noise, but the facts are more important. The data suggests slowdown is coming. The noise is getting louder as doubts around spending,

morningporridge.com/blog/nations/u… “Oh, the humanity…” The collapse of the Musk/Trump bromance surprised no one. But the speed at which its unravelling raises massive distraction risks to further challenge the myth of American exceptionalism. While Musk may still be the world’s richest