🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

Cremieux's Crémieux tweets aren't measurement invariant.

Are your tweets measurement invariant? Are YOU measurement invariant? What if measurement invariance isn't measurement invariant?

This old post that I responded to popped back into my mentions today. Made in 2019, predicting 2029. More than halfway there, doesn’t fare well at all. Decadal AI doom predictions will fare similarly.

Views in QT are: >mostly true (insofar as what is measured today) >almost completely wrong and misleading >wrong to describe it as a "myth"

Trend or Trump? Only three times in the last 20 presidential elections, the top 4% by income didn't vote Republican. Every single time, Trump was the GOP candidate. Losing the financial elite is often not a winning strategy. (Be aware of small sample size for top 4%.)

Some argue that AIs will not replace humans because they cannot really think. They are merely autocomplete machines that are trained on a corpus. They lack creativity. Have you ever talked to a normie?

Education increases IQ scores because it exposes people to tests, math, and reading. But it doesn’t actually make people smarter.

Interpersonal trust vs. GDP per capita ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-…

Turchin is doing the Sokal hoax with math.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.

Six-Day War ... immediately after the attack, Israel lied publicly in the UN and privately to US officials by falsely claiming Egypt had attacked first. The claim that it was a preemptive attack, which again is also bullshit, was only concocted later.

This is an illustration of "appeal to authority". The top panel is crude and could be called a fallacy. The second shows that an appeal to (lacking) authority can be useful. The bottom panel is an actual ad hominem. >Michael Jackson's music is good >Michael Jackson was a pedo

It's honestly amazing to me that some people think what happened last night somehow disproves what I was saying in this tweet. Iran has already taken far more damage than Israel and it will only get worse as it continues. Iran can only inflict serious damage on Israel with

„Welttendenz […] seit langem eine Linksrichtung, die seit Generationen wie ein Golfstrom die Sympathien bestimmt. Die Linke ordnet sich seit über hundertfünfzig Jahren die Rechte unter, nicht umgekehrt.“ – Ernst Jünger, 22. August 1945