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#EmergingMarkets #Sovereign #Defaults are very costly, and its effects on #poverty have been unexplored so far. In new work with Carmen Reinhart Clemens Graf von Luckner & R. Ramalho we find that poverty levels jump 30% in their wake, but that’s not all🧵#econtwitter documents.worldbank.org/en/publication…

Glad to share my new paper “The Fear Economy”. The paper addresses why macro variables co-move over the business cycle, why asset prices co-move with the economy, why r* has declined, and how monetary policy & other policies can help manage fear cycles... imf.org/-/media/Files/…

** Inflation: some optimism from expectations data The data from surveys of inflation expectations in the second half of 2022 will be very informative to distinguish three theories. They have important implications fo what inflation *will be*. 🧵 x.com/R2Rsquared/sta…

The median CPI, which excludes all the large changes in either direction and is better predicted by labor market slack, is out and is extremely ugly. A 9.2% annual rate in August, the single highest monthly print in their dataset which starts in 1983 (second highest was in June).

New analysis with Alex Domash of Phillips curve models first put forward a year ago confirms very substantial grounds for concern that inflation is not yet on a path back to 2 percent cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

Breaking a long hiatus from this site to announce that I'm now writing for The Economist! Check out my latest piece comparing today’s AI revolution to the golden age of computing in the late '90s economist.com/finance-and-ec…

My piece from last week in The Economist looking at rising inflation expectations in the US. Year-ahead expectations are 1pp higher than predicted by historical trends, while five-year-ahead expectations in the Umichigan survey are higher than the peak in recent years.