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Andrew Lautz Looks like they added in the exemption inflation adjustment as we originally interpreted it for the AMT.

CBO has been run by Republican directors for the last decade. They have been instrumental in making the agency's projections more accurate and comprehensive. Phill Swagel is doing excellent work and anyone denouncing CBO in blanket fashion for expediency's sake is not helping.

"House SALT deal will change" ... good! A $40k SALT cap is excessive. Even pre-TCJA (2017), average SALT deductions exceeded $20k in only a handful of districts. The vast majority in NYC, SF, LA areas. Congress can do SALT "relief" far lower than $40k. datawrapper.de/_/FAdWu/

CBO analysis of the House-passed reconciliation bill finds from 2025 through 2034 it would cut taxes by $3.7 trillion, cut spending by $1.3 trillion, and increase the budget deficit by $2.4 trillion.

And if the intent is for the bill’s temporary policies to be permanent, and it very much seems to be, then it will cost trillions more. The tax cliff in 2028 alone will be north of $1.5 trillion over 10.

“By trying to sort-of game the referee on these questions, members of Congress are going to miss the fundamental issue of whether this bill is an appropriate response, given where we are with the deficit and debt,” said Jonathan Burks of Bipartisan Policy Center. nytimes.com/2025/06/04/us/…

It's not CBO that does dynamic analysis on tax cuts, it's JCT. And JCT has done the dynamic analysis. They find the bill doesn't juice growth because the pro-investment provisions expire in 2029 and because of the *economic drag* from higher debt! jct.gov/publications/2…

This criticism of CBO from ATR is so transparently dishonest. Any predictions they made in 2018 about 2024 revenue would be in *nominal* terms. They only thought GDP would be $26T when it was actually $29T As a % of GDP, they predicted corp tax rev of 1.6% in 2024. It was 1.8%

🚨 NEW: U.S. CBO estimates that the House's version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add $2.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade. Our experts have a menu of options that could help lower the cost of the bill – read more here: bit.ly/3Hr7Xwu

As we expected, the One Big Beautiful Bill adds $2.4 trillion to deficits over 10 years. And that's not even the full story! In addition to temporary policies suppressing the on-paper cost, the debt service effects would add $530 billion to the cost (so $2.9 trillion total).

One thing to note: the FY2025 deficit reduction reflects the student loan provisions and the way CBO treats them. CBO scores changes to existing student loans as a 1-year change in their net present value, even though it increases fed cashflow over multiple years. Explanation:

A better measure is to look at revenue as a share of GDP. And in 5 of 7 years since TCJA's passage revenue has come in *lower* than CBO's *post-TCJA* projections. Attributable to several factors, not just TCJA...but defeats the narrative that CBO/JCT got it wildly wrong.

Why does the House bill’s tax cut reduce government revenue? Congress budgets based on how laws are written. Congress passed a law several years ago to temporarily cut taxes, so that after several years the tax cuts would expire and revenue would go back up. Congress budgets

Andrew Lautz Marc Goldwein yep factcheck.org/2025/06/explai…

Great story by tony romm on the debt implications of tax reform. Particularly struck by the below section because we’re setting ourselves up for more fiscal cliffs in the future! 2028: tips, OT, CTC, auto loans 2029: R&D, bonus, interest deductibility nytimes.com/2025/06/06/bus…

New from Rachel Snyderman and I: Pay-fors and economic growth are often set up in conflict w/each other. We argue paying for tax cuts is *essential* to unlocking econ growth by: 📉 lowering interest rates 📈 increasing private investment + productivity bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/3-reasons…

New from me: After this week’s barrage of Republican criticism, here’s what CBO Director Phill Swagel is thinking and saying.

Good on Phill Swagel for doing a public interview to push back on nonsense re: CBO. Many of the errors ppl complain about are fundamentally unpredictable events (COVID and related inflation) or strictures imposed upon them by Congress (e.g. using old baseline).