Private-sector job growth as measured by ADP was negative in September and contracted in three of the last four months. Normally this number is quickly forgotten because the BLS jobs report follows two days later, but with the government shutdown, this may be it for a bit.

This morning ChicagoFed released an update to its Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators for September 2025 along with expanded background materials. See the link in the first reply for details.

The @chicagofed has released its final real-time forecast of the September unemployment rate based on 11 different indicators of the job market. It is particularly important since it doesn't look like we'll get official BLS jobs data this week. chicagofed.org/research/data/…

While we wait for the BLS to come back online, our Unemployment Index ticked up for the fourth week in a row*. It still is a low level compared to its highs in 2021 (when we first started tracking it) but directionally concerning * not seasonally adjusted

Woohoo. Thank you Morning Consult !!!

1/ The unemployment rate index from Morning Consult , which is available to the public during the government shutdown, shows an upturn in unemployment on the eve of the shutdown:

Sam Ro 📈 Hey, Sofia Baig, the shape of that chart feels familiar...

You can now find the full details of ChicagoFed's new Labor Market Indicators (both advance and final releases) in Haver Analytics SURVEYS database.

Morning Consult's Unemployment Index ticked up again in early October. Although it is more volatile than the BLS' unemployment rate, it has been trending up since early September

Government employees reporting lower consumer sentiment this week amid ongoing shutdown