That's my kind of fortune cookie

For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion w/those of Metaculus forecasters & AI forecasts from Mantic Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus at the link below

Inside look: our quest to beat the top human forecasters.

The Market Pulse competition is for finance predictions: company earnings, treasury yields etc. We competed in Q3 and finished: - 19th / 122 entrants - Highest ever AI - 2.3x the score of the next best AI 🎯 Our best prediction was Nvidia forward guidance on margins (bullish).

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs

I had a fun conversation with superforecaster Robert de Neufville on his podcast! We discuss: 🤖 How does AI compare to human superforecasters? 🧱 Is there a data wall? ⏱️ Why to expect fast progress on sub 1-year prediction horizons 🔎 The importance of asking the right question

SoTA's first Frontiers Night is complete! A series of brilliant talks, demos & case studies with a lively panel comprising Toby Shevlane (Toby Shevlane), Michael Story (Michael Story ⚓), Ben Warner, and Tom Oliver on Forecasting the Future. We discussed the art & science of prediction

I gave a talk about AI for forecasting at the Society for Technological Advancement (Society for Technological Advancement) in London. The short talk covers: - What we're doing at Mantic, including the example of possible 🇺🇸 strikes on Venezuela that we automatically spotted in late Sept. -

For our launch party, we made fortune cookies with Mantic's predictions for what the world would look like on 1st Jan 2026. How well did we do? The predictions were from Aug 14th. 1. Nvidia market cap on 1st Jan 🔮 $4.52 trillion (median, with a mode of 4.75) ➡️ $4.53 trillion

📈Trends in AI performance in the Metaculus Cup, a large-scale forecasting tournament. The top-5 AI frontier makes linear progress vs the community prediction (CP). The CP is a wisdom of the crowds aggregate. Only a small handful of elite forecasters, from 500+ entrants, beat