Today’s CPI confirmed multiple forces are pushing core inflation lower: falling vehicle prices, a reversal of the Q1 pop in apparel inflation, mild deflation elsewhere in goods, and a slowdown in supercore inflation led by travel and vehicle svcs including mv insurance.

FOMC why did you change the font and layout of the minutes???

There is a lot of discussion in the July FOMC minutes about the likely timing of the first cut but almost no discussion of pace/strategy/scenarios following the first move.

Our latest shadow survey results show how much market participants' views have shifted on the possibility of a soft landing. 84% think it is within reach up from only 41% in September 2022.

The Conference Board labor differential measuring the % of respondents saying jobs are plentiful minus the % saying jobs are hard to get is dropping uncomfortably quickly--the Fed probably needs to step up its game