From the NBER Working Paper "People's Understanding of Inflation," by Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi & Stefanie Stantcheva. Here's the link: nber.org/papers/w32497 @nberpub #inflation #economy #nber #ecomtwitter

The monthly measure of US jobs opening fell from a revised 7.91 million to 7.67 million, notably lower than the consensus forecast and totally cementing a Fed rate cut in two weeks. Layoffs rose to 1.76 million. #economy #jobs #employment

The US (2s-10s) yield curve is on the verge of dis-inverting. #economy #markets

Oil prices fell further today, driven mainly by demand concerns emanating from a weakening global economy. Per the @cnbc charts below, Brent is now trading below $73, and WTI below $70. #economy #oil #econtwitter

A special moment with one of the most inspirational basketball players. Thank you Stephen Curry for all that you do. NBA Under Armour #inspiration

It’s US jobs Friday with the consensus forecasts looking for the August monthly payroll to pick up from July’s 114,000 to 165,000 and a slight decline in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. Given the considerable extent of not just data dependence but also of “data point”

Especially after the excitement of a month ago, when analysts and economists suddenly jacked up their probability of an economic recession, this morning’s (August) US jobs report comes as a relief… that is unless you were absolutely convinced that the Federal Reserve would cut

Of today’s two sets of remarks by senior Federal Reserve officials that come just before the start of the “quiet period”, this is the more significant one. Entitled “The Time Has Come,” Governor Waller sets out the reasons for the shift in the Fed’s policy emphasis and the key

This week saw a significant fall in US government bond yields that, interestingly, did not save stocks from having one of their more difficult weeks in quite a while (below). Also, led by an almost 30 bps drop in the 2-year, the 2s-10s curve disinvested this week (charts below).

It was a week that saw the upside of looser liquidity conditions being overwhelmed by renewed concerns about growth — or, to use the language of credit investing, from favorable interest rate risk to worrisome credit risk. #economy #markets #stock #bonds

What made this week really special for me. Thank you Stephen Curry. NBA Under Armour

What a win for the New York Mets. What a wonderful streak for such a fun team. Let’s Go Mets!!! #lgm #mets #amazing

Posted earlier: On what is behind the current (unusual) period of "ping pong economic narrative" ... and on how best to restore the lost anchors. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mar… #economy #markets Project Syndicate

The The Wall Street Journal on US jobs gains: "Using a three-month moving average to smooth out this and other monthly volatility, the underlying trend is clear: The economy added an average of 116,000 jobs in the three months through August, down from 141,000 in the three months through July. In

From Bloomberg: “The S&P 500 Index is coming off its worst weeksince Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 as Big Tech shares sank, led by Nvidia Corp.’s 14% plunge. Volatility also made a comeback, with the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, rising from 15 on Aug. 30 to a high

The link to the conversation with Joseph Cass and Sudeep Kesh: spglobal.com/ratings/en/res… #economy #econtwitter

A heavy data week on tap with... US CPI and PPI inflation, along with consumer sentiment and jobless claims; Eurozone industrial production; UK wage growth; China's industrial production, retail sales, and inflation; and Lots of inflation prints in the emerging world, including

Today’s data out of China will add to worries about the underlying health of the world’s second largest economy. The across-the-board downward misses on the price data are consistent with other metrics, suggesting that the combination of weak consumption and investment risks

. Jared Cohen has a great new book on making politics relatable for kids in 2024. "Speaking of America: United States Presidents and the Words That Changed History" brings history alive through the voices that shaped the nation. tinyurl.com/3h8j6hej #SpeakingofAmerica

Per Reuters below, China’s strong export growth beat the consensus forecast while imports continued to be undermined by weakening domestic demand. While these numbers will help boost China’s quarterly growth rate, they also highlight an important aspect of the country’s growth