Great to see Mohamed A. El-Erian revisting the Faculty of Economics!

In the first of this week’s two highly anticipated US inflation data releases, the monthly increases in both headline and core PPI were above the consensus forecasts: 0.5% vs 0.3% and 0.5% vs 0.2% for April, respectively.
These unfavorable inflation beats are offset by a notable…

While it may be tempting to dismiss the immediate impact of this US policy announcement due to the relatively small magnitude of trade being affected, doing so would overlook a broader point. This isn't just a one-off, narrow development.
Internationally, it's part of a…

From the The Wall Street Journal on US inflation.

The challenge remains the decisive lowering of services and #housing inflation while maintaining well-behaved goods price behavior.

The complication is that services #inflation has traditionally been less sensitive to interest rate measures and,…

So Mohamed el Erian is at Taylor Swift tonight. I am probably the only person to recognize him and/or care … but this made my night. Looking stylish in bright pink.

cc Joe Weisenthal Dan Colarusso bc you probably care

Per the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll:

“Joe Biden’s re-election prospects are being dogged by persistent fears over #inflation , with 80 per cent of voters saying high prices are one of their biggest financial challenges.”

“Aside from anxiety about inflation, the poll also found…

An incredible artist, singer-songwriter, performer, and entertainer. She is an inspiration in so many ways, including the genuine and effective way she engages with her audience.

#erastour Taylor Swift #swiftiedad

What are the chances.... rollin' into Taylor Swift #erastour paris & the first person I see... a true rockstar Mohamed A. El-Erian

From today’s Financial Times

#economy #econtwitter

With globalization giving way to fragmentation, we will continue to see a greater divergence in outcomes between and within countries, writes Mohamed A. El-Erian. bit.ly/4dsb2YO

Per Bloomberg, “US Consumer Sentiment Slumps as Inflation Expectations Rise” (details below).
Add that to other indicators of the slight stagflationary wind blowing through the economy.
#economy #growth #inflation #econtwitter

The UK is no longer in a technical recession.
GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, exiting the mild July-December contraction.
Having said that, the economy’s growth dynamics remain too timid — this after what already has been too long a period of growth that is insufficiently…

This, from Bloomberg, in connection with the debate on divergence in central bank interest rate policies.
The issue is not about whether, to use @ECB President Christine Lagarde’s framing, central banks are “not Fed dependent.” They can and should cut first. The issue is down the road –…

The outcome of the @BankOfEngland policy meeting is as expected below from earlier this morning. It has led to yields edging lower given that it has proven more dovish than the consensus forecast.
Specifically:
No immediate rate cut,
Openness to a summer cut;
Encouraging…

Here’s what I think we should expect from today’s @BankOfEngland policy meeting:
No immediate interest rate cut,
Openness to initiate a modest interest rate cutting cycle in future MPC meetings, most likely starting on 1st August and possibly on 20th June,
Somewhat more…

The difficulties facing economic and market forecasters are complicated by two broader phenomena that could last for years to come, cautions Mohamed A. El-Erian. bit.ly/4dsb2YO

While better than the consensus forecast, the latest German data release will, at the margin for now, shake confidence in the hope of a significant bounce in #manufacturing .
Output dropped 0.4%, month-on-month and, at the same time, the prior monthly expansion was revised down to…

From today's The Wall Street Journal.

(FWIW, I have a 35% probability for a US recession in 2024-25, 50% for a soft-landing, and 15% for a productivity-driven improvement in both the growth and inflation outlook.)

#economy #markets #econtwitter

'Let’s hope the Fed’s inflation confidence isn’t as transitory as it was in 2021.'
From the The Wall Street Journal editorial. 'Jerome Powell Isn’t Too Worried About #Inflation : The Fed Chairman offers a sunny view about prices and the #economy .'
#markets #federalreserve #centralbanks #econtwitter