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Yesterday I was on Bloomberg TV, where I discussed why I think the Fed is behind the curve and has a 'long row to hoe'. Watch my full thoughts here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Home Depot guides lower, and the stock price rallies 1.5%!  Time to dust off the Alan Greenspan “irrational exuberance” speech!!

David Rosenberg's gold panel webcast with John Hathaway and Ronnie Stoeferle was as fascinating as it was informative – both in the unique set of charts and the associated narratives. Let’s just say that when one does some hard-core analysis on supply and demand dynamics,

Check out our latest episode of the Rosenberg Round-up podcast

I had a great conversation with Oliver Renick on Schwab Network about the impact of a weakening U.S. dollar on investors. As we head into the new rate cycle, the U.S. dollar and real interest rates will likely have a downward trend. With U.S. households having an unprecedented 70% of

The fact that the Fed hiked the funds rate 75 basis points in the last leg of the tightening cycle when it mistakenly believed that nonfarm payrolls were 818k stronger from March 2023-March 2024 as per the QCEW revision, should be incentive enough for Powell & Crew to start

It truly is perplexing that the FOMC minutes could have been so dovish and yet the Fed could decide not to cut rates at the July 30-31 meeting, though “several” participants could have been convinced. The term “balanced” was ubiquitous, but you didn’t have to read between any

Check out our latest episode of the Rosenberg Round-up podcast

Powell let the cat out of the bag when he said that the jobs market is looser now than it was in 2019.  What we know about 2019 was that the Fed was cutting and went all the way down to 1.75%. So, let’s just say that it’s nice to know the destination point, which the Treasury

I had an interview on CapitalCosm, where we discussed my perspectives on slack in the labor market and the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. election result on the economy. The interview is topped off with a discussion on why I continue to maintain a positive outlook on

Please circle September 3rd at 4 p.m. on your calendar, because I will be hosting Steven Eisman of The Big Short fame on my webcast. It isn’t every day that someone gets profiled by famed author Michael Lewis, but Steven did after his mega-successful bet against subprime

It’s too bad that at yesterday’s CNN love-in interview,  Dana Bash didn’t ask Kamala about the economic impact and incentive distortions from boosting top personal marginal rates to nearly 45% from 37%, and the effective top rate for businesses from 21% to over 30% which would

In our latest Special Report, we outline the key elements of the Harris policy agenda and trace out the likely implications for growth, inflation, and other key macro variables — contrasting them with our previous findings on the GOP agenda. As a special offer, if you buy this

I was on CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss some important economic indicators to keep an eye on in September and the rest of the year. We also discussed the slack in the labor market and the consumer personal savings rate dropping to 2.9% from 4.5% compared to last year:

I was on BNN Bloomberg this morning, where I discussed why I think watching the labor market is key for navigating the current state of the economy - and how this may affect interest rates. Watch my full thoughts: bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/th…

Fed Beige Book: “Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period.” We are up to three-quarters of the economy either stagnating or

If you think the 10-year Treasury note yield won’t slip below 3%, take note that the GoC comparable just did exactly that. Both markets are more than 90% correlated. So call me a perma-bull … on bonds

Yesterday on Webcast with Dave, with special guest Steven Eisman, the two debated long and hard. Steven is extremely bullish on the outlook for the U.S. stock market (the big caps, mostly), his primary focus, and went so far as to declare that the economy has more dynamism today

Whither the soft landing?   Consider that small-cap stocks are rolling over even with market interest rates falling hard.  This dichotomy tells you a thing or two about how investors are marking down their earnings forecasts (ahead of the analysts) for the most