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I am pleased to announce that the bond-bullion barbell (a core component of the Rosie Fund) has triggered a +16% net return year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than +2,600 basis points.  How do you like that?  Even “perma bears” know how to make money!  We grizzly

ECB cuts rates to 2.25% which is 50 basis points below where Canada is and yet Canadian underlying inflation rates are some 20 basis points lower than in the euro area. The Bank of Canada will end up regretting not cutting yesterday and my recommendation is for Tiff Macklem and

I was on BNN Bloomberg this morning where I gave my analysis on the potential impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy and who is going to feel the long-term effects – and opportunities I see emerging from the chaos: youtube.com/watch?v=i94gkF…

“He’s strong, he’s committed, he’s smart. I am confident that with Jay as a wise steward of the Federal Reserve, it will have the leadership it needs in the years to come.” That was Donald Trump in November 2017 when he nominated Jay Powell to chair the Fed. I guess the President

One would think that with the tariff war being taken off the front pages of the morning papers that we would be seeing the dollar and equity prices higher, and bond yields and bullion lower. Clearly not the case. The problem is that as one crisis moves to page A2 what replaces it

This is what I wrote last November, not long after the election. I must admit that things have unfolded much more quickly than even I envisioned at the time, but the overall strategy of de-risking the portfolio has been prescient. As my maternal grandmother always told me,

The Fed’s just-released Beige Book made history.  “Tariffs” were cited 107 times compared to 49 in March and 23 in January; “uncertainty” was mentioned 89 times versus 45 in March and 13 in January.  Off the charts.   With over half the U.S. economy now deemed to be either in

We analyzed the Fed’s Beige Book and concluded that around 60% of the U.S. economy is either already in recession or on a knife’s edge. Judging by the sales and jobs market environment, a consumer-led recession.  This is not a 2022-2023 growth scare when $2 trillion of excess

If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can’t agree on whether they have even spoken to each other, how will they ever agree to a trade deal??

Well, Donald Trump has managed to poke the Polar Bear in the eye. Not only has the President upended the Canadian election by pushing the left-leaning Liberals into the lead heading into today’s election, but the locals are cancelling their southbound vacations, unloading their

Only in Canada does the party that governed over a decade of unprecedented economic ineptitude get rewarded for a fourth term in office. Less a case of there being a fresh face with Mark Carney, who previously served on the sidelines as Justin Trudeau’s external economic advisor,

The best column I have read in some time on this self-inflicted economic storm came from Martin Wolf’s piece in today’s Financial Times (“Why the US Will Lose Against China”).  I sense he may be detained at the airport the next time he dares visit the USA.  But this zinger

Ever since the “yippy” comment back at the April 9th lows, which coincided with the 90-day reciprocal tariff “reprieve”, it is abundantly clear that there is indeed a “Trump put”. If all it takes is the word “deal”, day in and day out, to whip up this much investor exuberance,

We are living through history. Only 0.25% of the time in the past century has the S&P 500 managed to rise nine consecutive days. A 1-in-400 or 3 sigma event! Guess what? Fully 80% of the time this dynamic happened in recessionary environments … not to mention just ahead of the

So let me get this straight. The objective all along on Liberation Day was to hike tariffs in order to lower tariffs?   If that is the strategy, will this newly proposed increase in top marginal personal income tax rates also be harbinger of lower tax rates?  How does policy on

You’ve got to hand it to President Trump. He has convinced everyone that a 30% tariff rate on China, and a 13% average tariff rate on the world (was 2.5% in 2024), are both normal and manageable. Nothing like a 10-percentage point levy on this $30 trillion beast called Global

The fact that single-family housing starts dropped 2% in April and are down a whopping 12% year-on-year to a nine-month low is the clearest sign of how the economy is in desperate need of interest rate relief. Not to mention yesterday’s disaster of an NAHB survey. As the soft

As the White House and Congress conspire to take the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to all-time record highs, breaking above any wartime peak levels of the past, we should all be very concerned.  This is no time to celebrate despite the cheering from the House this morning.  For the

I marveled at the ‘shrug of the shoulders’ from last week’s downgrade move by Moody’s.  For the first time ever, the bonds of the world’s reserve currency are no longer rated AAA by any major rating agency.  Thing is, the downgrade cycle is unlikely to end here.  Not only does