There is an agreement of a favorable severe weather pattern from June 3/4-6/7th. Afterward, the model spread increases but with ensembles forecasting a strong -PNA in June, the western trough is expected to remain later in June. Details are unclear, but it is something to watch.

Using the VWP for northern by Goodland, KS, we note that the hodograph had significantly more curvature with southward extent. Although weaker deep layer shear may lead to messier mode, the tornado risk seems higher as you go south if discrete storms can form!

Northern storms across the tornado watch encounter very cold air and are likely elevated/clustering. However, further south across the OK Panhandle/SW KS, unstable air remains. The VWP supports strong tornadoes if a discrete, surface-based supercell can mature. #kswx #okwx

Although the low-level wind profile is extremely favorable for tornadoes, very poor low-level lapse rates (via fog) caused most of the storms to be elevated in KS/CO (DDC). OUN 0z sounding is favorable for a wind event later in the evening if the storms can stay in a cluster.

It appears our first severe weather chance of June will actually associated with the remnants of the first EPAC TC. The upper-level low merges with the developing trough across the western CONUS, leading to a shortwave ejection that would favor severe weather!

The forecast for severe weather in early June remains on track. Model guidance suggests multiple shortwaves eject across portions of the Plains starting Monday. Even with weaker flow aloft due to it being June, appreciable severe weather is still expected.

Tomorrow's severe risk across the Mid-Atlantic may catch a lot of people off guard. A fast moving strong speed max will promote strong shear with moderate instability over the region. This should favor a mix between line segments and supercells capable of all hazards tomorrow.

This is one of the more classic looks I've seen for the Mid-Atlantic in a long time. Given predicted evolution, a broken line of supercells may move through VA/NC later today capable of all hazards. It's a good day to be weather-aware!

Low-level shear from the KFCX VWP shows robust low-level and deep-layer shear supporting supercells capable of all hazards. Once storms move east into better instability, a more robust severe weather episode may unfold.

The VWP data out of NOVA/MD are very favorable for supercells/tornadoes. The primary limiting factor at this time is storm mode and instability. However, SPC has put an MD out highlighting a corridor of higher tornado potential for this area. Multiple rotating cells are evident.

I don't know if I could think of a less standard May/June setup of severe weather across KS/OK.

UPDATE: It still looks classic.