Dinidu de Alwis (@dinidu) 's Twitter Profile
Dinidu de Alwis

@dinidu

Mostly unhinged opinions. Into casual gaming and pro-league napping. Apparently I swear too much. Also, adorable as fuck.

ID: 14174456

calendar_today19-03-2008 03:26:23

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Doing some scenario-mapping for someone for post-poll outcomes: scattered protests by NPP supporters, and those protests then being met with a strong-armed state crackdown is a likely outcome if an RW slim win happens over AKD (which is a big if; but hey scenarios amirite?).

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ගෝඨාභය රාජපක්‍ෂ ජනාධිපති වුණාට පස්සේ නාමල් රාජපක්‍ෂ පාටි වලට යන එක නැවැත්තුවා වගේ, අනුර කුමාර දිසානායක ජනාධිපති වුණොත් සෞන්දර්ය ගුරුවරු කොටසක් ඉස්කොලේ යන එක නතර කරන්න බලාගෙන ඉන්නවලු, මොකද අනුර කුමාර දිසානායක එක්ක කාටවත් නටන්න ලැබෙන්නේ නැති හින්දා.

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3) The chance of post-election violence is extremely low. Only reasonable scenario for possibility of violence would be the high possibility of a hard-knuckled state response (mostly through the police) to protests in the event of a close RW victory over AKD. (3/5)

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4) Unlikely that business-as-usual doesn't start on Monday, even if counting spills over to next week. Rest of polling day and Sunday (22) would likely be quite subdued in terms of daily-life, mainly driven by the uncertainty over who wins. (4/5)

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5) If Namal Rajapaksa manages to secure more than a 10% (very loosely, around or more than 1,500,000 votes), he will be the real 'winner' of this election. Went out pretty much on his own, burnt a tonne of bridges (at least publicly), and prepped for his 2029 campaign. (5/5)

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If I were RW, I will dissolve parliament on the eve of the election (i.e., today). It makes governance near-impossible for both AKD or SP in case of a victory. For him, if he wins, it ensures just over a quarter of pretty centralised governance with little checks and balances.

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When voting tomorrow, remember that it's only Sajith Premadasa who has, by now, is unaccounted for over three billion Rupees, two billion of which are taxpayer funds allocated to him by budgets from 2015-2024. Don't vote for a morally corrupt, financially compromised egomaniac.

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Here are four short bios of the four main contenders for the polls tomorrow: Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa, Namal Rajapaksa, and Ranil Wickremesinghe. Who they are, what their challenges are, what their history is, and what they (claim to) stand for. dinidu.medium.com/whos-on-the-ba…

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To think that there is any planning going over the course of two years is to give credit to a political campaign that's, at best, described as 'what do we do now'. There is no plan. There never was a plan. There never is a plan. Be it SJB, UNP, or NPP. ft.lk/opinion/Elite-…

To think that there is any planning going over the course of two years is to give credit to a political campaign that's, at best, described as 'what do we do now'. There is no plan. There never was a plan. There never is a plan. Be it SJB, UNP, or NPP.

ft.lk/opinion/Elite-…