Gall Sigler and I are excited to update our working paper 'Not of Primary Concern: Stability, Ideology, and Vote Choice in U.S. Primaries, 2008-2024' with precinct-level data from Ohio's 2024 Senate and presidential primaries.

Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Horrible and inexcusable.

cbsnews.com/philadelphia/n…

Your regular reminder that student evaluations of college professors may not capture what we want them to (because students tend to like easy graders who hurt their longer-term learning).

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.10…

I agree: on average, college students should study more.

But I also think universities could defuse some of the criticism headed our way if we measured not just inputs (like time studying) but outputs (like students' newfound knowledge & capacities).

Congrats to Mike Bailey on the new book 'Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research', which I'm super excited to read.

Last week, I wrote FiveThirtyEight about the emerging participation gap--infrequent voters are markedly more pro-Trump.

It turns out that the gap is *much* more pronounced when the GOP candidate is Trump than when it is Haley.

abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…

Dan Hopkins Xi Song Ellen Bryer Thanks so much, Dan! I will try my best to answer over a few tweets. First, I have to say that the effect of an intervention will probably depend on the type of financial asset. For instance, student debt relief will probably have the most direct impact on racial differences 1/n

Uses the lens of contemporary theory and practice to explore the history of polling in way that allows readers to understand why modern polling struggles.

Out Now: Polling at a Crossroads by Michael A. Bailey

cup.org/3TfQcCP

This came up in class today... anyone have pointers to research using ideal point models where the substantive application is *not* ideology or something closely associated with it?

Tomorrow's the 14th anniversary of the enactment of the Affordable Care Act.

If you want to know how the public thought about the ACA during its first decade, I've got you covered--check out my Russell Sage Foundation book 'Stable Condition.'

bookshop.org/p/books/stable…

Bernie Moreno, nominated for Senate by the Ohio GOP yesterday, is a car dealer.

When Jens Hainmueller, Teppei Yamamoto and I asked about professions of potential political candidates, car dealers underperformed the other professions we included.

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Excited to have and soon to read Sasha Issenberg's new book 'The Lie Detectives: In Search of a Playbook for Winning Elections in the Disinformation Age'

🔽📜🗳️

With lots of attention on Black Americans' survey responses, W. Halm, M. Huerta, J. Torres & I are excited to update our paper, 'Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls.'

URL: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

SICSS-Penn submissions are due on March 15 this Friday! Two weeks of intensive training on computational methods.

⏰ Apply now! Applications for the Data Scientist and Operations Research Analyst positions within our OES GSA Evaluation Division close Wednesday March 13th. Learn more about how to apply: oes.gsa.gov/opps/ #OESatGSA

Excited to be live-blogging with the FiveThirtyEight team tonight for Super Tuesday.

abcnews.go.com/538/live-updat…

One of my posts is about Alabama and factionalism in recent GOP primaries there.

Excited to announce the accepted tutorials for this year! 👩‍🏫
One more day to get ready for your #IC2S2 abstract submission‼️and join us in July 🌸