$RBLX. Classic gap up and crap, classic chart. Have been trading this guy this week. 7 wins out of 8 trades with average gain 55%. Target 110 at minimum by September. Manage your own risk.

My latest Chart In Focus article, "SP500 Now Really Overvalued Versus M2", is posted at my Home page. Direct link will follow in a reply.

$DASH

$QQQ put skew is near a 3-yr high — deep OTM crash puts are pricey as funds load up on hedges. Powell could do the funniest thing on Friday 💀

Trade idea: 8/25 fly SPX 6200/6300/6400p, risk $15.05 reward $84.95. 8/25 fly SPX 6100/6200/6300 risk 4.7, reward 95.3. A good way to bet Market doesn't like Powell's hawkishness, if any. $SPX, $SPY, $QQQ

Mean reversion, law of gravity, you name it. 2007-2012, 2025-2029 two lines cross again?

How do I trade? Entered these swing shorts around 6450, closed a big chunk of them around 6350. Already added some back around 6400. Will add more shorts if ever gets to 6440. However need to prepare for all scenarios for Powell's speech.

$SPX 6430 likely to be retested prior to Powell speech. Powell probably acts like an owl but market has to pick between dovish path to ATH vs hawkish path to resume the downtrend.

Goldman: Over the next month, the vol market is telling us the five most important events are i) NVDA earnings, ii) FOMC, iii) NFP, iv) CPI, and v) Jackson Hole.

$spx implied move tomorrow 1%, $QQQ implied move 1.3%. What's the path that can mess up with all traders?

If this bear pennant plays out, measured move is around 6275. $spx.

The Mountains are being built. This would be my primary path. I'm positioned for downside since 6450-6480. If market somehow think Powell is dovish tomorrow, I'm ready to adjust. Risk management is the key! $spy, $qqq.

Fed speakers are hawkish in the past two days. There is already a lot of fear in the market. Powell needs to be more hawkish for a large move downside.

Clearly uber dovish surprise from J Powell cancelled this drawdown possibility. Where do we go from here? Probably slightly upside to 6520-6550 and meaningful pull back after Labor Day and FOMC.

Interesting 🤔 Jackson Hole

$TSLA looks like a confirmed breaking out. Measured move 400-425.

It's getting clear on the wave count. I believe we are in W5 in W3. And I expect this W5 is an ending diagonal which ends around 6550-6600. Then a pull back to 6000 followed by year end rally to 6800-7000. $spy, $QQQ.