The issue with Powell's Jackson Hole speech was its 'narrow focus'—limited in timeframe and overly specific on the labor market. Adam Posen, known for his aggressive easing stance at BoE, hit the mark in his latest Odd Lots interview. BTC likely to move sideways longer, IMO

My family is on vacation without me due to special circumstances so I’m home alone which really means…

All happy investors are alike; each unhappy investor is unhappy in its own way - HODL Karenina

"Dear Father, why is Labor Day celebrated in September in America, but it is celebrated in May by the majority of the world?" "Dear Son, to know this is to seize the kokutai of the United States" Happy Labor Day 🇺🇸

Great reading from Volmex σ Coincidentally I recently developed the below slide for our institutional investors- Bitcoin volatility is here to stay. Quantity assurance (vs price assurance) is a feature, not a bug.

post-labor day dreams of wishing for a little less labor this friday

Private credit is now estimated to be larger than the public high yield bond market TradFi’s low float high FDV moment is here

This feels correct. Still more “correlated-Bitcoin” than “convex-Bitcoin” patterns. Always respected Arthur Hayes for not only clear thoughts but also intellectual agility like a true Riverian Will have chance to Yahtzee soon though Patience 🫡

In HS, I had a classmate who applied to 10 elite colleges, each with ~10% accept rate. He believed that mathematically this approach guaranteed a 100% chance of getting into at least 1 of them Same person that doesn’t realize that when market goes down, all correlations go to 1

So who’s gonna spin up the Polymarket odds on $DJT acquiring $WLFI or vice versa

Feels like a lose-lose situation, SFRU4 trades implying decent odds for 50bps cut already Also entirely possible nonfarm payrolls surprises to the upside Fold

A thought exercise: "We made a mistake back in July. We tried our best to forecast the natural rate of interest (which as you know is unknowable at the time so we control the nominal rate as best as we can to be ahead of the curve), and wrongly believed it to be higher than