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Ridiculous to claim we can predict effectiveness of an SBI system via experience in Ukraine.

Regardless of your opinion on the nessessity of Golden Dome, we have a serious messaging problem on it's intent. We can talk about it being intended to defeat limited strikes all we want but the President is in the Oval Office talking about a comprehensive defense system.

Great paper, but I'm not sure this point is satisfactorily evidenced. Nukes were not used! We had roughly similar nuclear employment scares in Korea and Vietnam.

1. "forever ending the missile threat to the American homeland"? 2. Defense against limited/coercive attacks vs rogues/peers/near peers? 3. Pace/negate rogues? 4. Preferential countervalue defense? 5. Preferential counterforce defense? 6. Some combination of 2-5?

An incredible real world occurrence of a Dr Strangelove joke

Ludicrous thing to say.

Isn't this entirely missing the point of the epic as well?

I will comment when I see the images. At this point everything is simply speculation.

Seems topical to repost this - a couple months ago I wrote in FP on the vulnerability of NATO airbases to Russian conventional missile strikes. foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/17/rus…

Article 5 is not an automatic assured retaliation button and we need to stop talking about it as if it is.

No surprise. There is no way on earth that this or any other administration would sanction, encourage or enable a large-scale attack on Russian nuclear delivery systems. Recall that the May 2024 strikes on Russian early warning radar caused signifiant concern in Washington.

Disagreeing with Jeffrey here - Russian nuclear policy documents are not made with Ukraine in mind. RU-UA is a local war. Nuclear policy documents are made to deter regional/strategic war.

Also a good example of difference between declaratory policy and employment policy — there have been other instances from this war that arguably met the thresholds in declaratory policy (mostly pre-2024 updates).