Tesla could partner with Uber before true Robotaxis arrive. Imagine a more affordable service tier than UberX. This model would significantly reduce costs by eliminating the need for paid drivers by requiring passengers to potentially complete drives if FSD disengages.

✅ One week later and the free trial is here. Next up:

$F adopting $TSLA NACS was a huge catalyst in ‘23 as other OEMs tagged along.

Elon Musk has already indicated preliminary discussions with OEMs have occurred with licensing FSD. Who will be the first mover OEM this time?

UPDATE: $FREY has still not started construction on their BESS 'Giga America' factory and is seeking financing from the DOE before end of '24. So, ~1yr delay.

Meanwhile, $TSLA has luxury of self-funding any Lathrop expansions or new MegaPack factories.

Reflecting on it, $TSLA probably should have initiated advertising years ago.

A more proactive approach would have steadily built consumer interest, ensuring more consistently steady demand and preventing the current need to 'catch up' to spread EV awareness and refute EV FUD.

To ensure resilience, a ~12-hour backup power average is needed for data centers. For the projected 35 GW demand in 2030, this equates to >100K $TSLA MegaPacks.

$TSLA opex only ~2.5X higher than $RIVN, yet it delivered >34X as many cars.

Tesla has 6 production facilities (Frem., Lath. Reno, TX, China, Berlin), while Rivian has 1.

Tesla also operates their mature: charging network, servicing & energy business, and 4680/FSD/AI teams.

U.S. Market:

$LCID $FFIE $VFS $FSR - zombies

$RIVN $GM $F $MBGYY $BMWYY - struggling, on track to become zombies w/o significant improvement

$VWAGY $HYMTF - meh

Everyone else (Toyota, Honda, etc.) + Chinese OEMs - basically nonexistent

$TSLA is the only success story in 🇺🇸

Extreme vertical integration has been incredibly beneficial for $TSLA.

Areas like 🚗 manufacturing, Superchargers, ADAS/FSD, software/infotainment, service, and MegaPacks/PowerWalls are already demonstrably profitable.

4680s, 48v architecture, unboxed process, solar roof, VPP,…

Many $TSLA investors complaining that $30B is too much cash to have on the balance sheet and Tesla should do a buyback.

Meanwhile…

$F is scaling back its partnership plans with CATL and other OEMs are slowing down their money-losing EV programs.

Meanwhile, $TSLA is going above & beyond to strengthen its relationship with CATL. This will likely be remembered the next time battery/lithium demand > supply. 🤝

$TSLA growth and profitability will likely continue to slow in ‘24 unless interest rate cuts and a very successful ad/awareness campaign make a huge impact.

However, as auto companies report Q4 earnings, it will become increasingly clear that Tesla is the only manufacturer of…

$TSLA COGS per vehicle (ex leases) continue to decline (3.2% QoQ), but so are ASPs (2.2% QoQ).

Who else was wondering why there wasn’t a new Rob Maurer up because they forgot for a second it’s all over? 😭