NASDAQ's rally has pushed it *16% above its 200 dma*, while only 45% of NASDAQ members are above their 200 dma! There is only 1 other time this happened (big NASDAQ rally on weak breadth): Feb 2020, just before stocks crashed Only difference? Breadth now is *WORSE* than in Feb

SentimenTrader Markets function has been hijacked by central banks and sense has long since left the building. None of the old rules work anymore. Dominated by negative real rates, relentless BS expansion, endless stimulus. MMT experiment and pre election manipulation

The trick is to not be a bear, rather to recognize what we’re up against, be extremely patient and look to strike when things are super stretched and the risk reward is compelling enough to at least have a shot at capturing something special.

The other trick is to realize that if you sell and it isn’t there, to recognize that it isn’t there, to step aside quickly, and wait for the next opportunity. It’s definitely not an easy thing to do.

1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble: Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -

I saw some people tweeting earlier about Adyen's valuation being hard to justify and then remembered this thread from @buyingvol last year

Elon Musk 破案了

“The only thing that rises in a bear market is correlation.”

原招商局董事长秦晓和招行首席经济学家的讨论。

The S&P is down 17% YTD, but if you only owned the market on days when the FOMC hiked rates, you'd be looking at a YTD gain of 6.8%. If you avoided the market on those 3 days and were long the rest of the year, you’d be down 23%. Nobody ever said the market had to make sense!

The transatlantic econ discourse

If you've ever wondered how much goes into making a YouTube thumbnail that shows products in action...🤓 New video is UP NOW!

加仓做空纳斯达克 NQ Jun24, 1 手, 成交价 17680, 止损18000, 交易记录如下图 #美股 #美股交易 #美债 #美债交易 #外汇 #外汇交易 #宏观交易 #全球宏观交易

badass

I like this blurb from Phil Galfond's latest newsletter. It is about poker but obviously applies to trading, too. You Will Eventually Run Worse Than You Ever Thought Possible This isn’t exactly advice, but more of a warning that has stuck with me. About 19 years ago, when I

I'm surveying institutional clients with the same question, seeing what X folks think: If the unemployment rate continues to rise, what level would trigger a sell-off in the S&P 500? If you retweet this I'll send you the institutional results too. #macro #hope

The rapid unwinding of positions of the Treasury cash-futures basis trade amplified market stress in 2020, and the large and leveraged trade has only grown since. A new report from researchers at the Dallas Fed analyzes its ability to handle future shocks. dallasfed.org/research/econo…

COLLEGE: Harvard and Brown have bought $IBIT. Harvard is pretty sizable too, the 29th biggest holder out 1,300 holders. IMO Endowments are the hardest institution to hook, they rarely bite on ETFs.. h/t The Block

Also worth noting that yesterday, there were ZERO trades on the BENCHMARK 10Y ON-THE-RUN cash JGBs This 1 day absence of activity isn’t the “why” behind 30Ys significance > 10Ys, but at the very least it is emblematic of a completely dysfunctionally destroyed market