Massive warning sign for Democrats with young Muslim men: 🔵 Born 1960: 88% Dem (2-party) 🔴 Born 2005: 59% Dem (2-party)

Worth noting: Colorado is Democrats’ largest redistricting opportunity outside California. Right now, the Colorado delegation is split 4–4, but the state can easily be redrawn to an 8–0 map for Dems. (this would not take effect until '28 even if it goes through)

Here you go! Democratic registration among young Hispanics/Black voters isn’t great, but it pales in comparison to the seismic collapse with young Mohammads.

Florida is the GOP’s biggest potential gerrymandering target, outside of Texas. Democrats currently hold 8 seats in the state’s House delegation, but a more efficient gerrymander could cut that number down to 4 or 5.

Harris just had the weakest Black performance for a Democrat in 50 years, even while still winning the majority of conservative Black voters according to the CES! There is more room to fall.

The article does a great job outlining how 2030 reapportionment should hurt Dems in the Electoral College. But my modeling does suggest the 2032 map is still likely to be more favorable for Dems than '16 or '20. The '24 coalition changes went a long way toward easing EC bias!

The biggest story of the 2024 election was large gains for Trump with Nonwhite voters. New registration data shows a total collapse for Democrats with Gen Z Nonwhite voters, especially men.

Indiana Republicans are widely expected to redraw districts to eliminate at least 1 of the state’s 2 Democrats. The open question is whether they settle for 8–1 or push for 9–0. With Indianapolis not VRA-protected, they can make a 9-0 map with every seat Trump+17 or redder.

If the Supreme Court overturns the Voting Rights Act, Democrats could stand to lose multiple seats in Georgia. Republicans would be able to draw an 11–3 map that is likely to hold even if Democrats win state in 2028.

I’m very skeptical that the same court which ordered Alabama to create a 2nd Black district in 2023 (Allen v Milligan) is now going to gut the Voting Rights Act in a way that lets Republicans eliminate both. That just doesn’t add up to me, though I’ll admit I’m no legal expert.

Harris did super well in swing states compared to Biden, relative to the nation as a whole. Even Arizona and Nevada trended to the left despite being the 4th and 5th most Hispanic states in the country!

Per Zachary Donnini, here's a map of white voter support shifts by state. Long-term, I think GA is probably the most likely state to follow a CO-like trend of permanently moving away from the GOP. Nearly all the trends are bad for them there.