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Just so we are clear, "fiscal dominance" is where fiscal policy makes it impossible for the Fed to hit its inflation target, either because the administration doesn't allow it to set high enough interest rates, or because raising rates would make the inflation situation worse

Is this it???!?

I've been thinking about this a lot.

What if we don't have a federal spending problem? What if we're just having trouble taxing the resulting economic growth?

We live in a higher nominal world, which is why 60/40 $VTV + $GLD has returned 122.1% and 60/40 $SPY + $IEF has returned 71.0% since March 2020.

Medicaid & SNAP cuts in OBBB in a historical context. Effectively it is a return to 2019 levels as % GDP. Much of this is unwinding Biden's exec actions to increase SNAP/Medicaid w/o Congress. So basically a normalization of spending levels.

There was less real growth from 1910 to the peak of the bubble in 1930 than there was from 1930 to 1950 (through the Great Depression).

Once again, for those in the back: multiple job-holding is a pro-cyclical indicator. That means that the share of workers with multiple jobs rises when times are good. That's because there are more job opportunities in a healthy labor market.

Effective tariff rate, annualized imports/tariff revenues, by country. 2024 versus May 2025

The biggest disappointment of Bessent's tenure is the status-quo on duration. This episode got really close to how I feel about this market. youtube.com/watch?v=oGzgRV…

This could have been an H1 rebalance in momentum funds into a really battered down portion of the market. Mid-caps outperforming y/y, value outperforming y/y, some emerging markets too. All of these factors on an international stage, esp in local currencies, are very strong y/y.

I sold the treasuries I picked up earlier this year for $VTV today. Lost a couple % on a small portion of my portfolio, that's fine. Keeping my 5% allocation to $GLD, which has beat. My value/smid-cap allocation continues to increase.

🚽 🤴(toiletking fka toiletbaron fka toiletking) The macroeconomic comments I have are not a product I sell clients and I don't really suggest people follow along as I attempt to build a macro product that: 1) Outperforms a diversified portfolio over time via alpha 2) Avoids lost decades that most threaten retirement portfolios

It is true that one option for the debt is to inflate it away. It is also true that inflation does not solve the deficit problem.

Should index funds be weighted by Enterprise Value or Market Cap? It seems to me like the Market Cap situation encourages shareholder dilution via debt.

Bitcoin was supposed to prevent debasement and instead it has wildly encouraged debasement, no?

Core goods are meaningfully accelerating as of today's CPI print. Reason CPI came in within expectations was lagged core services (namely shelter) doing some heavy lifting and markets knew there's little juice left to squeeze from that. This is why the bond market sold off imo.