The Economic LongWave (@theelongwave) 's Twitter Profile
The Economic LongWave

@theelongwave

Exploring the Past, Forecasting the Future, Historian, Macroeconomist, LongWave Theorist, Navigating the Seas of Social, Political & Technological Change.

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linkhttps://economiclongwave.com/ calendar_today01-01-2020 15:26:48

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When Interest Rates Soared—and Home Prices Did Too Many still hold the mistaken belief that falling interest rates are a reliable support for real estate prices. But history offers a much more nuanced lesson. Take the postwar period from 1946 to 1981—a time marked by a secular

When Interest Rates Soared—and Home Prices Did Too

Many still hold the mistaken belief that falling interest rates are a reliable support for real estate prices. But history offers a much more nuanced lesson.

Take the postwar period from 1946 to 1981—a time marked by a secular
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The Economic Seasons 🌱❄️ Imagine the economy moving through seasons in a grand, multi-generational cycle. Each Kondratiev wave represents a complete seasonal cycle lasting 75-100 years. Moving from the spring (1946-1966) of innovation and growth. Through the summer

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Bubbles don’t just destroy wealth—they steal your future.” 🔮💸 Bubbles = Time Theft ⏰💸 They steal from the future by pulling tomorrow’s demand into today. 🏠 Housing? Buyers rush in now, fearing higher prices later. 📉 After the bubble pops, demand vanishes—already

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📉 The bond market is screaming. 3-month Treasury yields just broke down hard, signalling the Fed is about to cut rates. Not from strength—but because weakness is spreading fast. Welcome to the early chill of Economic Winter ❄️.

📉 The bond market is screaming.

3-month Treasury yields just broke down hard, signalling the Fed is about to cut rates.

Not from strength—but because weakness is spreading fast.

Welcome to the early chill of Economic Winter ❄️.
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Excellent insight from Better Dwelling 👇 What’s striking is how the collapse is concentrated in BC and Ontario. History tells us the pattern is clear: the bigger the bubble, the greater the fall. In time, the rest of Canada will inevitably follow.

Excellent insight from Better Dwelling 👇

What’s striking is how the collapse is concentrated in BC and Ontario. 

History tells us the pattern is clear: the bigger the bubble, the greater the fall. 

In time, the rest of Canada will inevitably follow.
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Toronto Real Estate: A Personal Journey and LongWave Perspective Now the numbers finally make sense 📉🏠 After digging deep into the Real Estate archives and stats Canada, here’s what history reveals: 1946 (Start of the LongWave): Home prices were just 2x income. 1954 (When

Toronto Real Estate: A Personal Journey and LongWave Perspective

Now the numbers finally make sense 📉🏠

After digging deep into the Real Estate archives and stats Canada, here’s what history reveals:

1946 (Start of the LongWave): Home prices were just 2x income.

1954 (When
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📉 Canada’s unemployment rate has been rising since real estate peaked in 2022—now sitting at 7.1% (Aug 2025). History shows unemployment surges when bubbles burst. With three primary cycles converging downward into the late 2020s, the job market strain we’re seeing today is

📉 Canada’s unemployment rate has been rising since real estate peaked in 2022—now sitting at 7.1% (Aug 2025).

History shows unemployment surges when bubbles burst. 

With three primary cycles converging downward into the late 2020s, the job market strain we’re seeing today is
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I forgot to mention that for those looking for the bottom, the two last inflation bear markets were 11 years and 7 years. Given the current size of the credit bubble, history suggests this trend will persist into the next decade.