This is one of those outcomes that seems so cut and dry in hindsight– of course a father will do anything to protect his son, right? But the previous odds prove it wasn’t really so obvious, and indeed I really struggled to form a strong conviction on this one myself, no pun

Kalog My only regret is not putting more up. I was gonna put another 1k at least this week on it but was freeing up capital from other markets and decided I would still have time. Big mistake lol

My favorite thing about prediction market traders is that success requires them to be objective enough to evaluate without political bias. This means the best traders are rarely, if ever, hyper-partisan, a welcome respite from most other political spaces in this day and age

I bet against btc crossing 100k yesterday, chasing a 10x, and got punished. Bitcoin, I'm sorry I doubted you. I'm just grateful I didn't get bamboozled by the hawk tuah girl.

Trump's case for TIME Person of the Year 2024: kalshi.com/markets/kxtime… - Legal issues dominate headlines early in the year: E. Jean Carroll, NY fraud trial, hush money trial, SCOTUS immunity ruling - Campaign kicks into full swing - Survives assassination in Butler, PA and

TIME releases its POTY shortlist: time.com/7200122/person… The only alternative to DJT I am moderately concerned about is Netanyahu who doesn’t even have a contract on Kalshi. Gut says it won’t be Elon. And I’ve hedged Kamala so cheap that I’ll actually win a bigger profit if

Speculating here but I wouldn't rule out some sort of a quid pro quo agreement between DeSantis and Trump. Ron gets promised SecDef and Lara becomes a senator apnews.com/article/lara-t…

coindesk.com/tech/2024/12/1…

Submitted my first market to Kalshi today: "Who will be the Democratic nominee for governor in Michigan?" apnews.com/article/michig…

This is kind of the elephant in the room when it comes to prediction market legalization and probably a large factor in why the CFTC can often hesitate to loosen regulations. Tweet below is implying a hypothetical scenario where a biolab insider with top security clearance may

You should be extremely bullish on AOC's political prospects

Hello, old friend

How many on the marketing teams at these companies do you think are aware of prediction markets?

Been thinking this too. Love to see a diversity of markets but also need to tread carefully in this brave new world

@HalieyWelchX wild you woke up on the last day of the market 😭

Unlike TIME's Person of the Year, Financial Times kept us on our toes a bit for this one. Jensen Huang was at like 70% just a couple days ago

Today, I announced my departure from CFTC. After more than seven years at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, I will be stepping down from my position as Chairman on January 20th. My final day at the Commission will be Friday, February 7th. A 🧵