This is just a job masquerading as fun

Rest in peace

I don’t do a ton of top down betting, but this is the only twitter account that I have notifications on. You should be following him. I don’t want to write a book here, but he’s good in a more sophisticated way that’s applicable to people who are limited most everywhere.

I predict one of these websites is going to become truly massive

(EV + EV + EV…) x Correlation ≠ EG. Not to say this won’t work, he’s extremely talented and it’s dope he showed all his bets. As a gambler, I’m rooting for him.

Polls are garbage in, garbage out. You can’t do calculus on crappy data. There’s no EV if your inputs are crap. It’s a forest for the trees situation. Essentially unbettable.

This is the way

There are a few academic papers on this. The one linked is paywalled, but also look at the 41 other papers in the References section. There are a lot of things like this that we "overlay" on our simulation model in one way or another. journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

ChatGPT: Let's test various publicly-available weather models to see which is the most accurate at predicting wind 7 days in advance.

More time to get bets in…

Important Book Review: Dan Abrams' (Dan Abrams) But How Much Did You Lose? First of all, I think this book & Abrams will become famous one day, in the way Wong Teasers and Kelly Criterion (and their namesakes) are terms known to all sports gamblers. "Losing hurts your

It is written: “Public betting data is worthless”

Congrats to Alex Monahan. Fucking badass

This is correct. Aside from the fact very few papers calculate p correctly, 0.05 is completely arbitrary. The ramification of this on all of our lives is extraordinary. Too many insane examples to list.

Wasn’t planning to come to this city ever again but the hotel has a falconer to keep the birds away from my chips, so I might.

My friend did it. +137,000

There are ways to originate bets that don’t require rocket surgery. Most pro betters have found a number of individual angles throughout their careers. Haralabos Voulgaris’ (Haralabos Voulgaris) story is my favorite because he exploited one fairly simple thing to the tune of $100 million

My beloved Colorado Rockies on pace for -510 run differential. This is how bad that is back to the McKinley Administration. Statistically speaking, you would expect this to happen once every 4,000 years. #selltheteam