USDA forecasts a 3% increase in corn for ethanol this year. Even assuming a less efficient new crop we are missing the mark in the most recent four weeks. We'll be interested in USDA's corn for ethanol reports when they restart to gauge efficiency.

1/2 USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service released backed up weekly meat production data. The attention grabbing headline is that "...cattle weights are at all time highs".

2/2 I'm not sure this is of any surprise or a shock. The bulk of the near term increase is a normal seasonal rise into fall. On a year over year basis the current +2.4% level is right where we've been all year.

For disclosure, many of these "sources say" biofuel stories have been wrong in recent years. However, if this is true is a clear setback.

Chinese buying continues, now 1.816 million tonnes.

China's October soybean imports ran 9.5 million tonnes. This was +17% from last year. Over the recent six months their imports are +9.7 mt from last year. We'll get the trade deal buying but likely not any more.

Very tough news. In 2024 Brazil supplied the US with 2.4% of our beef consumption. Much of this news may already be priced in though. "NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef..."

Much of the clamor over cattle weights has to do with seasonals. We may be about past the worst of that concern. Positive, in the latest week weights also slipped compared with last year, +2.4% at the end of Oct to now +2.1% at the start of Nov.

This week's release of backed up meat production data was bearish for hogs. Weights have risen sharper than normally seen. Here for the first week of November they remained so, +1.4% year over year.

The 9/25 Hogs & Pigs report implied a supply change as we head into winter. Pig crop numbers hitting the market in Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb would run -1.0%/-3.8%/-1.7%/-2.1%. For three weeks so far in November, that story has not been seen.

No massive surprise on the monthly Cattle on Feed report. October placements -10.0% from last year. Over seven recent months it is -7.4% from last year. Packer-led slaughter declines in October brought marketings -8.0%.

Every three months the COF report also gives a steer/heifer breakdown of the feedlot. We monitor this for signs of liquidation/expansion. There are just a few less heifers in the feedlot than recent years. This is not massive expansion. It does mean a little though.

Rumor from earlier this morning has been confirmed. Tyson will close its Lexington, Nebraska beef processing plant. This was one of the major ones with daily capacity of over 4,000 head. tysonfoods.com/news/news-rele…

Rains in both Brazil and Argentina have been below normal. It is not a story to rally from though. This still means 0.7 - 0.9 inch per week. Additionally the time when weather really influences yields, reproduction, is still in the weeks ahead.

No clear seasonal top yet for cattle weights. The prior week added +2.1% to beef production separate from slaughter numbers. In the second week of November that increased to +3.0%.

The Lean Hog Index, the measure of cash hog prices that futures are settled to, is at 81.92. LHZ, expiring in 11 sessions, suggests cash hogs only -0.13 per day ahead. Futures are suggesting the worst of the worst of the seasonal downtrend is over.

Deferred futures are now a question. Over the past 20 years February has expired over December 15 times. It have been below December at expiration only 5 times.

Brazil rains over four recent weeks are -49% from normal. This is not a major issue yet. This still averages 0.8 inch per week. Rains are forecast ahead for the center-west but not the south. Reproduction, when weather really matters, is still in the weeks ahead.