Welp - it happened. On RacetotheWH, I track how much Harris/Trump have gained in each state in the last 45 days. Harris has made such big gains that she literally broke my graphics. And she did this in over five different states.

Here's how my Arizona Senate Primary Forecast at RacetotheWH performed: Projection - Kari Lake wins 56.4% to Lamb's 40.1% Result - Kari Lake wins 55.4% to Lamb's 39.4%

Kamala continues to have the momentum. In the head to head polling average at RacetotheWH, she now leads 48.3% to 46.6%

Get ready for the RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast! It will be dropping on Monday!

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Here's where the RacetotheWH Polling average stands in the key swing states after the new NYT Polls: AZ: Harris +1% GA: Trump +1.5% MI: Harris +2.3% NV: Tied NC: Trump +0.6% PA: Harris +1.3% WI: Harris +2.2% racetothewh.com/president/polls

Just in time for the Democratic Convention, my 2024 Presidential Forecast is now live on RacetotheWH! It simulates the electoral college 50,000 times a day to predict the odds of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the election. racetothewh.com/president/2024

RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast Update Chance to Win: Harris 54.6%, Trump 45.2%, Tie 0.3% Projected EV: Harris 288, Trump 250 EV

NC Governor Forecast Update: Pollsters are painting a consistent picture in North Carolina - Mark Robinson has fallen behind in the polls. My average has him down 8.5%. For the first time, the RacetotheWH Forecast rates NC as Likely D. racetothewh.com/governor/north…

Which feature do you want to see released first on RacetotheWH? 1. Election Night Simulation (Presidential) 2. Battleground States - Breakdown of the Forecast for each state and how they have voted in recent elections 3. Alaska House Forecast - Showing Ranked Choice in Action

RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast Update (8/22): The race remains incredibly close, but Harris has taken a narrow lead in my projections for 5/7 of the top swing states.

Rating Shifts in the RacetotheWH Forecast since the Launch on Monday: Maine: Likely D to Safe D ME-2: Lean R to Tilt R NE-2: Tilt D to Lean D New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D Texas: Lean R to Likely R

RacetotheWH Forecast for the Sunbelt: AZ: Harris +0.3 GA: Trump +0.6 NV: Harris +1.1 NC: Trump +1.1 Also, North Carolina has shifted from Tilt R to Tossup. racetothewh.com/president/2024

I just launched a new feature on RacetotheWH that let's you simulate the election once a day! Just like the real election, polls will close in each state by time zone, and the results are called last for the states with the closest results. Enjoy! racetothewh.com/president/2024…

Kamala Harris is polling well ahead of where Joe Biden was when he dropped out of the race.

How much do Presidential debates affect the national polling? I delved deep into 538's polling data to answer the question. From 1980 to 2020, the polling has shifted a net 2.8%.

This is how I see the map for the Presidential race. Harris's position in Michigan and Wisconsin have shifted enough to put them in "Tilt D" territory. 🧵

Give me a race, and I'll give you a prediction straight from my election forecast. For the Presidential, choose a state.

Kamala Harris has received a post-debate bounce in the national polls. (Source: RacetotheWH Polling Average) Debate Day: Harris +2.7% (Harris 48.9%, Trump 46.2%) 7 Days Later: Harris +3.8% (Harris 49.4%, Trump 45.5%)

Here's our first three post-debate polls for Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac (9/12-9/16): Harris 51% to Trump 45% Suffolk Univ. (9/11-9/14): Harris 49% to Trump 46% Insider Advant. (9/14-9/15): Trump 50% to Harris 48%