If correct, Rasmussen Reports is showing a six point lead for Sherrill in New Jersey gov race.

Trafalgar shows the races in Virginia closing and Miyares leading Jones in the AG race.

🚨 FINAL FIELD WEEK: Oct 20 Quantus Insights begins its closing survey pass for New Jersey. 📊 New Jersey Governor’s Race 🔵 Mikie Sherrill (D) 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli (R) Our last field test before Election Day.

It likely has more to do with methodology and mode. If you rely on a large portion of your sample from online panels, you’ll get mixed results among independents. If you survey directly from voter files—live calls, IVR, or large text surveys from a large universe (say, 80k) of

Lt. Gov results and Trump approval among GOP primary voters are also included.

Back in August we updated early midterm model and shared the probabilities at 60% / 40% in favor of Democrats taking control of the House. x.com/QuantusInsight…

There’s a surprise brewing in the Alabama GOP primary for Senate. Results are coming this week. Stay tuned.

All you can say for Quinnipiac polls is that it's a D+8 sample (D35 R27 I32) with fewer Republicans than Independents in New Jersey and yet they have Sherrill only leading by 6. That's Likely Voters too. Ciattarelli does better with partisans and with Independents alike. And

If Quinnipiac misses, they'll miss by at least 6 points with 100% directional bias toward the Democrat.

Quinnipiac: New Jersey Governor's race Oct. 2025 🟦 Sherrill 50% (+6) 🟥 Ciattarelli 44% Sept. 2025 🟦 Sherrill 49% (+8) 🟥 Ciattarelli 41% If Quinnipiac misses, they: ▫️Miss by 5 pts on average when wrong ▫️Leans D+5 in misses ▫️ Only ~40% of polls land within 3 pts of final

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: Georgia GOP Primary––Leaders Emerge, but 'Undecideds' Dominate | N=900 | MoE ±3.2% Governor 🟥 Burt Jones — 32% 🟥 Brad Raffensperger — 15% 🟥 Chris Carr — 12% 🟥 Clark Dean — 2% 🟥 Ken Yasger — 1% ⬛️Undecided — 37% Lt. Governor 🟥 John F. Kennedy —

Our last New Jersey Governor’s Poll Sept 29–30, 2025 showed: 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 48.1% 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 45.8% ⚪️ Other: 1.6% 🟣Undecided: 4.5% The RCP avg: +4 🔵47.6% 🔴43.6%

NEW INSIDERADVANTAGE POLL | New Jersey Governor — Oct 14–15 🔵 Mikie Sherrill (D): 45% 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli (R): 44% 🟡 Undecided: 11% Race statistically tied with less than 3 weeks to go. Independents break Ciattarelli +6 (43–37). GOP consolidation + turnout trends mirror