During the 70s and 80s you might see moves persist for several days while $SPX was below its 200ma. 90s - now it has been rare. Since 1989, 3/20/2003 is the only other time until today $SPX has closed up 7 days in a row but < 200ma. $SPY

I'm at NAAIM Uncommon Knowledge conference reading my daily Quantifiable Edges newsletter. And who is sitting in front of me?!? The man (Rob Hanna) himself!

$VIX $VX futures (front 2 months) have not closed in contango since March 27th. Threatening to do so today with May just slightly above June as I type.

$SPX gain currently is 2.5%. $VIX down almost 3 points to 19.2. $SPX 2.5% daily moves equate to $VIX about 40. So why is $VIX down so much? Answer: Perceived risk is gone. Trade war is "over". Nobody wants to pay up for SPX options 30-days out. I don't think $VIX will melt all

$TYX (30-yr treasury rate) currently at 5.07%. Hasn't closed above 5% since Oct 23 when it peaked at 5.1%.

Interesting podcast conversation between Adam Taggart and Tom McClellan this weekend: youtu.be/8uysmVS66zg?si…

Here's an interesting little study that popped up while I was doing my research this weekend... $SPY $SPX $QUANT $STUDY

One interesting aspect of Monday's action was how large the rally was compared to the recent range. $SPX moved from a 10-day low close on Fri to closing > 10ma. Only 10th time since 1961. Previous 9 showed no short-term edge. (Basically coinflip next few days.) Still interesting

$SPX is very close to a new all-time high. Interestingly, the 50ma is still below the 200ma (Death Cross formation). It takes a sharp rally to accomplish that. I looked back and found only 4 previous instances where $SPX closed at a new high while Death Cross was still in effect.

July has historically seen the best 1st day of any month. Performance from 1989 - 2024 can be seen in the attached chart. Note the last 14 years in a row have closed higher!

I really liked this recent paper, by Tom Carlson. It presents a interesting approach to a Defense First strategy. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… $QUANT $STUDY

$FED Day coming Wednesday. A few notes about Wed odds for you to prep as we approach... edge has been stronger with selling ahead of announcement. 3 examples: quantifiableedges.com/action-mon-tue… and quantifiableedges.com/why-a-new-high… and quantifiableedges.com/strong-selling… Also notable is that the edge basically

$SPX 21-day realized vol closing at lowest level (6.24) since July 2024. $VIX may seem low at 15, but it is almost 9 points above realized. Opportunities for real vol this week with earnings, $FED and jobs report. But if realized stays low through this, $VIX could be a good bit

First trading day of the month has generally been strong...except August: quantifiableedges.com/first-trading-… $SPX $SPY #seasonality $QUANT $STUDY

Interesting article on the NAAIM exposure index and the current divergence Tom has noticed...

The Reversal Tendency of Labor Day Week: quantifiableedges.com/the-reversal-t… $SPX $SPY $QUANT $STUDY #seasonality

Since the 9/11/2001 attacks and tragedy, September 11th has been a very strong day for the market. See study below, which will be included in tonight's subscriber letter. $SPX $SPY

A bunch of Fed Day studies to help you prep for tomorrow... quantifiableedges.com/category/fed-s…

Divergences between the SP500 and the NAAIM Exposure Index are good markers of important tops. But there are false ones (divergences which get rehabilitated).

This is the 3rd day in a row that we are seeing $VIX and $VX futures rise along with $SPX. Unusual action.