The anatomy of two long expansions: The Longest Expansion: A post mortem thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2020/06/22/the… via @marcusnunes

We are not in or close to a recession! Looking for patterns, by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune… EconstratPB Ááron Sepúlveda-Cué Alex Schibuola Patrick Horan🎃

Just 3 months ago! "I think r* is a lot higher than the Fed recognizes .The current funds rate 5.25%-5.50% is exerting negligible restraint on growth and inflation…"Perhaps the Fed’s mantra, instead of 'higher for longer,' should be 'higher indefinitely.” --Bill Dudley

Steve Hanke: "Now we have this huge contraction in the money supply. We've only had 4 contractions EVER [...] and ALL OF THOSE CONTRACTIONS LED TO RECESSIONS." A repeat of 'Black Monday'?, by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune…

Meltzer´s inflation nightmare thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/05/09/mel… via @marcusnunes 2009: "When will it [inflation] come? Surely not right away. But sooner or later..." 2014: "Inflation is on our future. Food prices are leading on..."

Typical Trump "spin": “She wants to do another one because she was beaten tonight. I don’t know if we’re going to do another one,” Trump said in the spin room. “She wants a second debate because she lost tonight, very badly. … We’ll think about that.”

Get smart Powell. Harmonized CPI below 2% for last 2 mos. But you wrongly pay attention to OER, an imputed (and lagged) price nobody pays! Has been very close to 2% for more than 12 months.

M C Klein: "The goal should be getting to "neutral" as quickly as possible. Since no one knows where that is, optimal policy should consist of moving down quickly while preserving the option to correct later." Don´t search (in vain) for "neutral". Stabilize NGDP growth instead!

Importnat for the present: The Fed should avoid being obsessed! Obsessions & disorientation thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/obs… via @marcusnunes

A primer on the advantages of NGDP Level Targeting Monetary Policy 1992 -2009: A Market Monetarist Perspective thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/12/01/mon… via Marcus Nunes

“in 2007 and 2008, the US economy encountered a perfect storm.” Explorations in recent monetary policy history, by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune…

Jamie Dimon has doubts about a "soft landing": “I hope it’s true, but I’m also more skeptical that inflation is going to go away so easily.” It´s gone already!

Not too long ago it was thought monetary policy was powerless Monetary policy powerless? thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2011/04/25/mon… via @marcusnunes

When “money illusion” was a “policy assumption” thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/09/06/whe… via @marcusnunes But what they really did was guide the economy to the “Great Inflation”.

Steve Hanke argues a recession is "baked in the cake". Pity he uses bad ingredients. The M2 money supply is "flavorless" and he does not add money demand to the pot! And he´s closely involved with CFS which publishes Divisia monetary indices!

21 yrs ago, Fed communication was effective! Forward Guidance: Then & Now thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/for… via @marcusnunes

"A tale of two moments", by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune…

"Wishing upon a star", by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune…

Others are envious, by NGDP Advice-Marcus Nunes open.substack.com/pub/marcusnune…