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High cocoa prices is good news for farmers in Cameroon: they receive minimum farmgate price, but flexible above that depending on market, while output set to rise this year. In contrast, Ivory Coast & Ghana output affected by rains, and prices for farmers fixed at start of season

High eurobond interest rates had pushed Cote d'Ivoire to the regional debt market, but international capital markets now more attractive, supported by Cote d'Ivoire's strong growth and commitment to fiscal sustainability, guided by two IMF programmes

Zim$ has breached 10,000/US$1, from around 6,300 at start of year. Will add upward inflationary pressure, but economy is essentially dollarised (more than 80% of transactions). How far will it slide, and how long will it continue (until RBZ concedes lack of credibility)?

Leaving ECOWAS would disrupt regional trade links, but leaving CFA franc zone would be disastrous. Where would they issue debt? Any new currency would be worthless- US$s would be scarce, & the main unit of exchange for business reuters.com/markets/curren…

With Gbagbo running, Ouattara might be tempted for a 4th term rather than relinquish power to a successor. Economic outlook looking good (big offshore oil discoveries, issuing eurobonds), while France will prioritise stability in Côte d'Ivoire, & has limited willingness to meddle

More than 75% of transactions conducted in US$s & government uses blended inflation rate to mask soaring prices in Z$ terms. No one will have confidence in currency without end to deficit financing & building up reserves, which will necessitate international support & reforms

Zimbabwe already flipflopping on planned currency reforms. Delays to implementing ZiG will only add to confusion and uncertainty for businesses. US$ will remain dominant medium of exchange as purchasing power of local currency will remain poor (with inflation elevated)

Introduction of physical notes and coins has been delayed, while uncertainty over how widely it will be accepted (particularly for fuel). Further depreciation expected (esp on parallel market amid hard currency shortages) US$ will remain dominant voanews.com/a/zimbabwe-new…

Déby declared winner of Chad's May 6th poll. Election commission couldn't wait the 2 weeks it said it would take to count the votes, raising questions on veracity (while EU-funded observers kept away). 10 candidates stood, but no real competition or semblance of democracy

jacobin.com/2024/05/just-e… The Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) model isn't attracting enough capital, and climate finance flows are well below where they need to be more broadly

Ivory Coast's ruling RHDP says Ouattara (in office since 2011) the natural candidate to run for 4th term in 2025. Could be seen as admission that RHDP has no other candidate & so closely associated with Ouattara that there is a risk that it will disintegrate without him

France’s military presence in West and Central Africa will be reduced to 600, from around 2,200, as part of regional reconfiguration. France will nevertheless remain politically influential and continue to provide logistical and intelligence support and training

Despite Déby's firm grip over Chad, regime faces challenges from rebels & jihadis. Widespread poverty & grievances against government, stemming from limited economic opportunities & low levels of development, have created a supportive environment for militant groups to take hold

Ouattara's 4th term supported by strong economic outlook (huge oil & gold discoveries), but some instability likely as opposition reject legitimacy (as with 3rd term), while future of RHDP uncertain as this is admission no one else can fill his shoes

Nations that receive highest level of US ODA per capita are among most reliant on aid overall. Suspension occurs as many other countries have reduced their aid budgets. Some funding shortfall may be addressed through alternative sources, but unlikely that total gap will be filled

Fear over rating agencies' treatment of restructuring makes middle income countries nervous about debt for nature swaps, even as they struggle to finance climate adaptation strategies, but poorer countries prioritise access to financing they provide bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Côte d'Ivoire faces 21% tariff on US exports (75% of which is cocoa products). Ivorian cocoa is higher quality, so should find alternative buyers. US importers will look to other producers with lower tariff rate (like Ghana and Ecuador, at 10%), but US consumption will decline

US was Côte d'Ivoire's 2nd largest export destination for cocoa in 2023 (US$831m), behind the Netherlands (U$1.2bn). Tariffs will weigh on exports from Côte d'Ivoire, but Ivorian cocoa is higher quality than elsewhere, so they will likely be able to find alternative buyers

PDCI has called on opposition parties to support Thiam, but CAP Côte d'Ivoire is not a united bloc behind a unity candidate. Other parties likely to call on PDCI supporters to rally behind their candidates to unseat Ouattara, but Thiam supporters more likely to boycott the vote

A 4th term for Ouattara was widely expected (broad popularity on economic growth and relative stability, but wealth distribution a concern), but big questions over post-Ouattara outlook for RHDP. Who can replace him? VP Tiémoko Meyliet Koné? Could see a managed hand-over mid-term