🇺🇸 The MTSI Services PMI Composite Index bounced from -1.04 in July to -0.17 in August, a significant improvement in services conditions. Demand improved after weak Q2 readings as the Revenue index increased 58 bps to 0.05 and the New Orders index jumped 76 bps to 0.36.

🚗 US total vehicle sales fell -2.9% MoM in August 2025 to a SAAR of 16.49 million units, though sales were still up +5.5% YoY. Domestic light trucks showed strong YoY growth at +12.5%, offsetting weakness in autos.

📈 FactSet: US ETF assets under management increased to $12.25 trillion in August from $11.88 trillion in July. August recorded inflows of $117.8 billion, up 1.5% from $116 billion in July, taking the year-to-date total to $786.3 billion.

🏨 S&P Services PMIs in August: • India sees growth accelerate further to the strongest in 15 years. • Australian service sector growth accelerates to surpass the US for 2nd place. • Canada and Germany service sectors fall into a contraction and are the 2 weakest.

🇯🇵 Japanese real household spending increased 1.7% MoM (vs 1.3% MoM expected) in July, rebounding after a -5.2% MoM decline in June. On an annual basis, spending was up 1.4% YoY (vs 2.3% YoY expected), slightly higher than 1.3% YoY previously.

🇬🇧 The UK Halifax House Price Index rose +0.3% MoM in August 2025, the third consecutive monthly gain, while annual growth eased slightly to +2.2% YoY, with the average house price reaching a new record high of £299,331.

🇬🇧 UK retail sales volumes rose +0.6% MoM in July 2025 (after +0.3% in June), but fell -0.6% on a 3Mo3M basis, reflecting softer demand earlier in the period. On an annual basis, sales volumes were still up +1.1% YoY.

⚠️ The ONS made corrections to its retail sales data over the last year, specifically due to seasonal adjustment factors. This caused some flattening of the data, making the recent large gains/declines smaller.

🇩🇪 German new manufacturing orders fell -2.9% MoM and -3.4% YoY in July 2025, reflecting sharp transport equipment volatility and weaker foreign demand. Excluding large-scale orders, new manufacturing orders rose +0.7% MoM.

‼The BLS is experiencing technical difficulties ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls data at 08:30 ET.

🍞 The FAO Food Price Index held broadly steady at 130.1 in August 2025 (+0.1 MoM, +6.9% YoY), as declines in cereals and dairy were offset by gains in meat, sugar, and vegetable oils.

🇪🇺 Euro area GDP growth in Q2 2025 was confirmed at +0.1% QoQ and +1.5% YoY in the 3rd and final estimate, confirming that the economy slowed from a strong 0.6% QoQ increase in Q1 2025. Inventories contributed the most to growth in Q1 and was offset by GFCF down -1.8% QoQ.

🔺 The unemployment rate for 20 to 24 year olds jumped 1.3 ppts to 9.2%, the highest since May 2021. A surge in joblessness in this segment typically only happens when there is a recession coming or currently happening.

🇨🇦 Canada’s employment fell -66k (vs +7.5k expected) in August 2025, the second consecutive monthly decline, while the unemployment rate rose +0.2 ppts to 7.1% (vs 7.0% expected), the highest since 2016 (ex-COVID years).

🇨🇦 The Canadian Ivey PMI fell -5.7 pts MoM to 50.1 in August 2025, hovering just above the expansion threshold, but was up +1.9 pts YoY from August 2024.

🚂 The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain, fell -0.5% MoM in August 2025 from July 2025, its fourth decline in the past five months.

📊 The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast eased slightly to 2.10% last week, down from 2.22% the prior week, as softer labor and trade data outweighed mixed survey results.

💼 The August jobs report confirms labor market fragility, with hiring momentum slowing and job gains concentrated in 2 industries. Markets are pricing in Fed rate cuts, with a high probability of 75 bps of easing by year-end as recession fears mount. seekingalpha.com/article/482001…