Called the top $slv

Keeping our members safe from chasing hype $slv

$slv

After focusing on US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar, we can zoom out: global equities, country risk, and currencies. The big theme? Globalization’s rise—and its backlash—is reshaping markets. And it’s not reversing.

Currency moves matter. When returns are converted to USD, leadership shifts dramatically across regions.

At the start of 2026: • US equities = 47% of global market cap • But only 38% of 2025’s market-cap gains Europe and China carried more weight than their size suggests.

A reminder for US-centric investors: International diversification isn’t dead. Two decades of US outperformance ≠ permanence. Markets rotate—even when they don’t feel like it.

Yes, the S&P 500 gives global exposure (≈60% foreign revenues). But 2025 showed that owning the world ≠ owning only the US.

Country risk matters. It’s shaped by: • Political structure • War & violence • Corruption • Legal & property rights These risks vary widely—and change faster than people expect.

Think of countries like companies: life cycles. • Young economies: high growth, high volatility • Mature economies: stability, slower growth • Aging economies: stagnation risk Mismanaging your phase is costly.

Sovereign credit ratings (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch): • Focus mainly on default risk • Often slow to adjust • Can miss political risk (e.g., Middle East vs default probability)

Markets offer an alternative signal: sovereign CDS spreads. They’re noisy—but fast. In 2026, even Argentina & Venezuela show improvement (from “uninsurable” to “very expensive”).

Equity risk premiums (ERP) by country start with the US. After the US downgrade: • Mature market ERP ≈ 4.23% • Country ERPs = scaled default spreads + mature premium

Now currencies. Key mistake in finance: 👉 assuming government bond yields = risk-free Governments do default—sometimes instead of devaluing.

After stripping default risk, true risk-free rates vary wildly: • Very low: CHF, JPY • Moderate: USD, EUR • Very high: TRY, ZMW Inflation expectations drive most of the difference.

Bottom line: We may want to de-globalize politically—but markets don’t get that luxury. Risk differs across countries. Ignoring it doesn’t make it disappear.

#California used to be such a beautiful state until the leadership ruined it

There’s no structural confirmation of a bear market for those calling for one $es $spy

A lot of institutions own a large percent of $btc supply… that’s strength and vulnerability two sides of a coin

$slv