SA Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 50bps to 8.25%, which will be reflected in the prime interest rate. Bank is clearly concerned about ongoing inflation risks despite better than expected cpi and ppi data. Rand weakened! Have rate hikes gone to far??

Another massive delivery beat for Tesla! Well done to Elon and the rest of the team, for continuing to lead the transition to sustainable energy. When it comes to BEVs, you need a telescope to find who is in second place. lnkd.in/eVZmD7kg

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: A Social Media Dissemination Experiment I've written a paper on safe withdrawal rates from living annuities in South Africa, and I'm excited to share it with you! Traditionally, papers like th…lnkd.in/e55pkEnC

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: A Social Media Dissemination Experiment Let’s begin this journey with the problem statement. We all dream of a worry-free retirement, don't we? However, ensuring financial security during your…lnkd.in/eSHNz6gk

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa Let’s begin this journey with the problem statement. We all dream of a worry-free retirement, don't we? However, ensuring financial security during your golden years may not be as straightforwar…lnkd.in/eDiSHBET

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa (Post 3) Let’s continue exploring the problem by discussing the variables of interest, and the dimensions over which these variables will be modelled. There are three variables of interest, the…lnkd.in/es2NdAVv

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: Post 4 (Methodology and Assumptions) We will use Monte Carlo simulations to draw random monthly real returns from actual historical returns for the different investment options. We will sample…lnkd.in/eTjEq_F4

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: Post 5 (Life Expectancy & Probability of Surviving) We are going to begin by looking at the results of the simulations ignoring mortality (in the next post), but before we do, we may want to un…lnkd.in/eAcH7DXM

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: Post 6 (Nominal & Real Returns) Before looking at the results as promised in the last post, I need to show one last set of assumptions, which are the real return expectations for each of the in…lnkd.in/eDbsPsD6

Safe Withdrawal Rates from Living Annuities in South Africa: Post 7 (All-Share Index / ignoring Mortality) Finally, as promised, let us begin looking at the results by considering the probability of success over given periods, ignoring mortality, if the…lnkd.in/e9yY9-zM

US inflation slowed encouragingly to 3% in Jun, helped by slowdown in food, used cars, and shelter. Core inflation still elevated at 4.8%, but also slowed. Base effect played a significant role, but still a good outcome. Fed expected to hike this month, but that likely the peak

SA inflation back inside target at 5.4%. Food inflation still a problem at 11.1%, but overall inflation rate trending lower. The sharply higher electricity price increase of 18% is not yet reflected in the data. Less chance of a rate hike tomorrow but Bank will remain cautious

SA Reserve Bank kept rates unchanged at 8.25%. Recent improved inflation data has helped. The Bank beliefs inflation will be back at the mid point of the target by Q3 2025. Overall a good decision, and not necessarily the peak of interest rates depending on the inflation outcomes

Please join us for the ActuarialSocietyofSA Retirement Matters Sessional on 19 September, where Joao Frasco will share insights from research into the probabilities of success for different living annuity drawdown rates across different investment strategies.

Investment actuary Joao Frasco "bootstrapped" 20-year investment returns to show how probabilities of success for living annuity investors are influenced by choices of withdrawal rates & investment strategies. The findings are fascinating: tinyurl.com/ydde36v2

New actuarial research identifies how different investment strategies may prevent capital erosion in living annuities - tinyurl.com/4nyab4ue Adopting an aggressive investment strategy in retirement seems counterintuitive. New actuarial modelling shows, however, that most

The incoming President of ActuarialSocietyofSA and CEO of Colourfield, Costa Economou, told actuaries attending the 50th ASSA Convention in Jhb this morning that public interest must trump all other considerations when actuaries deliberate some of SA's most pressing challenges. 🧵

Interesting profile on Costa Economou, incoming President of ActuarialSocietyofSA, written by Stephen Cranston.

Inn8 wins the overall Citywire South Africa #DFM Award for 2023. Citywire South African staged its DFM Awards at a gala ceremony at the Mount Nelson Hotel in Cape Town. citywire.com/za/news/inn8-w…

Tesla to the moon!