Long time followers know the balance of payments is one of my obsessions. I’ve spent decades reading the literature and the old policy debates on this stuff. So when I came across this WSJ/Cato piece arguing that Section 122 can’t apply today it struck quite a nerve. It is

Phil Magness You’re committing a basic logical fallacy by taking one historical ex of a BoP crisis (reserve drain under a fixed/managed regime) and treating it as the entire definition set. But I never claimed a reserve drain isn’t a balance of payments imbalance. Of course it can be.

1/3 Excellent summary by JP Morgan's Joyce Chang of the recent conference at Princeton University's Julis-Rabinowitz Center. It seems like the global debate on trade is starting to turn decisively away from the consensus of the past few decades. markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email…

China Daily: "China's central bank announced on Friday that it will cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20 percent to zero, a move analysts say signals efforts to ease the rapid appreciation of the renminbi." chinadaily.com.cn/a/202602/27/WS…

"free floating exchange rates", that's your ss talking.

Operation Epic Fury. President Trump has been willing to do what’s right and necessary to produce real peace in the region. God bless the United States, our great military, and Israel.

What he said.

SInce it's inception, the neoliberal "rules-based order" has consistently tolerated (or actively promoted) violence against any government or nation that defies its rules. You don’t need to approve of this. Just acknowledge that this is how it has always been.

I know it is behind a paywall so let me summarize: this article tells me that the "private credit/private equity" Jenga tower is beginning to topple. The banks and brokerages are exposed as are retirement accounts, endowments, and other thinly veiled hedge funds...

Of course Iran was going to retaliate (even if the response ends up being disorganized and ultimately hurts them in the long run). In a high-context, honor-based culture like Iran's, failing to respond simply isn't an option; retaliation was inevitable from the moment the

Day 2 of WW3 has been absolutely brutal so far. I've had one more coffee than usual and my screen time is off the charts. I rate our chances of surviving another day at 50/50. See you back here tomorrow for more panic slop updates.

While it is true that Iran’s hypersonic-class missiles represent a serious capability upgrade and pose a credible threat to fixed or slow-moving targets in the region, and they do complicate defenses, the claim that there is “no defense” and that they can reliably destroy an

okay, that was funny!

You can be disagreeable without being a cynic. Disagreeable people are direct, argumentative, and tough-minded, but they do not believe that everyone is selfish at their core. They may distrust specific individuals while still believing in genuine goodwill overall. Often, they

If you've noticed the pattern, you recognize this is as much about China as it is about Iran. t/adm has systematically targeted governments that actively support/aligned with China. 80% of Iran’s (seaborn) oil exports, (1.38 million barrels per day) went to China. Making