3.93 million (annualized rate) existing home sales in June, according to NAR. We are stuck near 4 million, comparable to levels last seen (outside of the GFC) when Third Eye Blind's "Semi-Charmed Life" topped the charts in 1997. Chart from Bill McBride:

If Trump gets his way and replaces Powell with a new Fed Chair, we can look forward to lower interest rates, right? Yes and no. Deutsche Bank estimates we'd get lower short-term yields but higher long-term yields, pushing mortgage rates UP, not down.

Holy cannoli. Major bipartisan housing legislation just proposed. Housing affordability is a huge, national challenge and it will take a huge, national push to make headway. This is an encouraging start!

Great writeup by Jessica Fu at the Seattle Times about how the local housing market is swinging in buyers' favor: much more inventory, flat pricing, longer time on market.

I had the privilege & honor of interviewing Gov Waller in 2021. He is a smart insightful economic analyst who understands & believes in the Fed's mandate. He'd be a great choice for Fed chair. If Trump selects him, POTUS will have got it right. omfif.org/videos/omfif-l…

The most up to date tally on America's current tariff rate. Up from 2.4% to 18.6% now.

Mortgage Rates Hit Another New Longer-Term Low 30 Yr. Fixed: 6.55% (-0.02% ▼) | 15 Yr. Fixed: 5.92% (-0.01% ▼) | mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates…

Seattle Area Market Stats for July 2025 -Avg. Sale Price: $1,007,000 (-0.4% YoY) -Closed Sales: 3,874 (+0.9% YoY) -Active Listings: 9,237 (+38% YoY) -New Listings: 5,592 (+10% YoY) -Avg. Days on Market (sold): 28.2 (+30% YoY) -Months Supply: 2.4 (+0.6 YoY) Residential

Mortgage deja vu: Mortgage News Daily shows rates below 6.6% this week, right around the time they dipped below 6.6% last year! There's no guarantee they'll continue all the way below 6.25 like last fall, but a softening labor market has made history repeat so far this summer.

Wow! YTD lows today for mortgage rates: 6.52% according to Mortgage News Daily 's midday print. Investors feeling bullish on bonds after dovish speech by Jay Powell at Jackson Hole this morning.

Another new year-to-date low for mortgage rates! 6.50%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Mortgage-Treasury spreads just hit 3-year lows, last week, of only 2.262 points for 30-year loans vs the 10-year yield. That spread spiked with rising interest rates in 2022, but has haltingly melted back down since then. Here's the 5-year perspective:

6.45% - New 2025 low in mortgage rates, according to Mortgage News Daily (blue in chart). And Freddie Mac's weekly survey came in at 6.50% today (orange in chart). Both measures are the lowest since last October.

It's deja vu in the mortgage market! Just like Q3 of last year, rates are falling due to growing storm clouds of weak labor market data. Last year, this ended when rates surged on positive data surprises plus the Fed's jumbo 50bps cut.

WOW. Mortgage rates plunge 16 bps on today's weak jobs report. 6.29%. They've only been lower than this for exactly 4 of the past 100+ weeks -- right around this time last year, in fact.

Good reason to be cautious about interpreting today's huge upside surprise Census data report on new home sales in August. It's from a somewhat noisy survey, and is contradicted by industry data sources.