On the topic of null results, this paper is absolutely fascinating. Holding all else constant (precision, p-values, etc.), studies are deemed much less publishable, *lower quality* and less important when results are null vs. significant 😳 CC: Carlisle Rainey

This is an excellent report on #Russia's unconventional warfare outside of Ukraine. Particularly interesting is the way that the GRU took over #Wagner activities in #Africa. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Burkina Faso: disparition du journaliste Adama Bayala, critique du gouvernement de transition rfi.my/AkRZ.x

Sometimes I wonder how many people in Europe are aware of the number of uncovered intelligence activities by for instance Russia or China ... Did you know that ... 1) according to Dutch intelligence, a Russian spy tried and failed to secure an internship at the international

One of the things that strikes me about the cover stories of Russian spies is the fact that many of them have a Brazilian nationality as part of their legend. Maybe that helps to cover for a potentially revealing accent...

Le Niger rompt « avec effet immédiat » ses relations diplomatiques avec l’Ukraine, deux jours après le Mali lemonde.fr/afrique/articl…

Using survey data from Georgia, @Sabine_Carey & Jürgen Brandsch investigate how proximity to disputed borderlines and variation in the nature of borderlines shape security perceptions and foreign policy preferences. Learn more here: doi.org/10.1177/205316…

In case you missed it: I wrote a book! HOW TYRANTS FALL examines the way tyrants lose power, from coups to rebellions to mass protest to assassinations. The Financial Times called the book "compelling" and The Economist recommends it as one of the best books of the year (so far)

Au Tchad, les violences agropastorales ont atteint un niveau sans précédent ces dernières années, renforçant la perception d’un clivage entre le nord et le sud du pays. crisisgroup.org/fr/africa/cent…

Fabulous new ⁦nature⁩ paper on gene-culture co-evolution. Amylase genes have higher copy numbers in agricultural populations than in fishing, hunting and pastoral populations. Have changed over last 12,000 years. nature.com/articles/s4158…

I drafted a new UN Global Firearms Programme report which examines diversion of firearms into illicit markets, and how criminal justice systems can investigate and prosecute arms traffickers. UNODC publications: unodc.org/unodc/en/firea… Download the report: prio.org/publications/1…

DRC: deforestation Data: Hansen/UMD GLAD /Google /USGS/Global Forest Watch/NASA

It is also possible that this is just capturing sentiment and measurement error. The academic freedom index shows that things were worse in 2020 than under McCarthyism and the Red Scare... Face validity is important.

Many hoped that Sudan’s war would start winding down after the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum. Instead, the conflict is escalating and likely to expand. crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…