It look time but she grew into the most amazing looking dog. Tina lived every second of her life as if it were her last. She never looked back in anger (4/10)

comandobaltasar. I netted out gold but didn't net out the deposits -- do you know what is in "otros pasivos"? anyway you cut it Argentina is basically out of fx

On Argentina’s program slippage (and the likely failure of the upcoming bailout) moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/on-argentina…

It is critical that the IMF retain external debt metrics in its low income country debt sustainability framework & I would encourage an immediate review of the (flawed) MAC debt sustainability framework as well -- it missed Argentina b/c it looked at the wrong variables 10/10

Brad Setser not sure if you saw but Chris Marsh had a very nice piece about the origins of this theovershoot.co/p/guest-post-d…

The $Dollar share of Chinese trade credit is dropping sharply. In fact, the provision of USD trade credit may be negative. This is new, and something we discuss in our latest Substack: moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/a-new-driver… 1/ Jens Nordvig Chris Marsh

On Friday I gave a speech on the potential for a "Global Stablecoin Glut." If stablecoin growth forecasts prove accurate, the consequences for monetary policy may resemble those of former Chairman Ben Bernanke's global saving glut from two decades ago. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

Neoclassical and New Keynesian (NK) DSGE models both claim to explain the macroeconomy. One assumes perfect equilibrium. The other adds a few "frictions." Under the hood, they share the same broken core. 🧵1/12

IMHO, the "better forecasts" spin doesn't stand up. The final pre-measures forecast (round 3) would *already* have included any good news on the economy, interest rates etc. The reports that Reeves had submitted a plan to raise income tax appeared *later*, after round 4... 🤔

All of which is to say, if Budget 2025 is indeed the "smorgasbord Budget", then it's only the latest in a whole series. Interesting thing to look out for this time is: how high is that red bar? Is this the most complex Budget in history? Actually the bar is already quite high

I strongly endorse the letter by Belgian academics in Le Soir arguing that using Russian Central Bank assets frozen in Belgium to support Ukraine is legally sound: 1. Belgium's initial opposition to using these assets for a reparations loan was understandable. But now that the

For Jacobin, I sat with Michael Pettis for a long conversation about the global trading system. We talked about his influential framework for understanding imbalances, hashed out some of our disagreements, discussed the role of finance and remedies. jacobin.com/2025/12/global…

"What if we have got things backward? What if fiscal policy were instead set to the needs of the private sector rather than expecting the private sector to adjust to the 'needs' of fiscal austerity?" --Chris Marsh moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/fiscal-fumbl… Whole essay is excellent

BIG NEWS TODAY homepage.exantedata.com/vanda-exante-d…

It was great to meet new colleagues in Vanda's London office this week. The combined tech and distribution teams of Vanda and Exante Data will allow us to accelerate new product build, and to reach institutional clients around the world faster. Exante Data has been working

The Scott Bessent interview with Larry Kudlow yesterday has some important snippets on where we are on on Fed process (status on Miran seat, short-list of Chair candidates, color on Powell situation) foxbusiness.com/media/scott-be…

"Sell America" Redux: Greenland Edition a 🧵 Exante Data Jens Nordvig Has long tracked pension FX and hedging activity. With thanks also to Maria Casteneda and at the request of Brad Setser

David Ricardo showed in 1817 that if each country produces according to its comparative advantage, global output is maximized. Many analysts argue today that China's trade surplus reflects its comparative advantage in producing everything, and so its trade surplus is good for

New at THE OVERSHOOT: Russian War Spending May be Maxed Out theovershoot.co/p/russian-war-… The official budget deficit surged last year, as did off-balance sheet military spending via the banking system + unpaid bills. That might be tough to sustain, especially w/ lower oil revenues

Happy 96th birthday to Dr. Israel Kirzner! To celebrate his remarkable legacy, it’s worth revisiting one of his memorable appearances with us. In 2016, Research & Programs hosted the Advanced Austrian Seminar, where Professor Kirzner delivered a keynote lecture on the market