Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile
Fishtown Capital

@fishtowncap

Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space

ID: 65545420

calendar_today14-08-2009 03:01:21

18,18K Tweet

4,4K Followers

1,1K Following

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Have been kicking the tires on $CROX for a while but never pulled the trigger because I’m “dumb money” in fashion. Solid quarter to guiding to an 11% sequential revenue drop? Oof

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Finally listened to the Energy Transfer $ET call. Disclosed a 6x EBITDA number for this project. 4.5 year wait and hopefully they finish on time, but $1B/year in EBITDA from this pipe..

Andrew Coye (@andrewcoye) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Another insurance recovery for $AER Aercap. EUR 112 million (~$0.65 per share, net) from NSK. $2.6 billion total recoveries (with potentially more to come).

Another insurance recovery for $AER Aercap.
EUR 112 million (~$0.65 per share, net) from NSK.

$2.6 billion total recoveries (with potentially more to come).
Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB H&R Block reports Tuesday. I am the only nerd on earth that's excited for it. Asset-light recession proof share cannibal at 10x EPS, growing NI 5% + repurchasing 6%+ shares/year in a market where Tobacco co's trade 12x Popped after Q4 last year and could again. Why not?

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m, P/E now under 10, if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another ~6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off.

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB Guiding for $400m of repurchases again. 5% EBITDA growth + 6% repurchases + 3% dividend. Mid double digit grower, and if they tighten up expenses (is $300m if marketing really needed?) it's got a lot more upside.

$HRB Guiding for $400m of repurchases again. 5% EBITDA growth + 6% repurchases + 3% dividend. Mid double digit grower, and if they tighten up expenses (is $300m if marketing really needed?) it's got a lot more upside.
Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB -Sounds like CEO Jones is actually just retiring. -Sounds like the FY26 guide for $4.75-5 is conservative -Talk about tailwinds to control spending

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I’d be having such a good week if $HRB didn’t miss a layup (at least they’re going to do $250m in repurchases at lower prices.) May add to $CNC and $ELV tomorrow. They could both double in 18 months.

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB H&R Block “reasonably possible” to recover $152m ($1.15/share) from def. tax assets this year. The $4.75-5 guide assumes none of it and a 25% tax rate, higher than normal. Finally learning to under promise and over deliver. Should never have been in last years guide

$HRB H&R Block “reasonably possible” to recover $152m ($1.15/share) from def. tax assets this year. The $4.75-5 guide assumes none of it and a 25% tax rate, higher than normal.

Finally learning to under promise and over deliver. Should never have been in last years guide
Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$FICO I disagree. It’s still 45x and Vantagescore is owned by the 3 firms that own all the credit data. What FICO does is pretty trivial at its core. I don’t think their moat is worth much and they pushed pricing too far and got a competitor. Just my 2 cents.

Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$HRB Block refi’s their $350m of 5.5% notes lower and 7 years out. Silly it dropped on a delayed tax credit, but happy to see $400m in repurchases done in low $50’s vs low $60’s last year. Better business than a 10x multiple.

$HRB Block refi’s their $350m of 5.5% notes lower and 7 years out.

Silly it dropped on a delayed tax credit, but happy to see $400m in repurchases done in low $50’s vs low $60’s last year.

Better business than a 10x multiple.
Fishtown Capital (@fishtowncap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

MLP Bros, anyone have an opinion on OneOK $OKE here? Down 35% from November highs under 12x 2026 EPS estimates, while $KMI and $WMB sport far high valuations.