Agreed that Trump is more likely than DeSantis.

Its nice when all the little arrows are green. Less nice when there are only 7 arrows because predictit is probably wrapping up.

TIL that Kalshi sent me roughly ~7000 emails this week.

If a darkhorse get's picked for press secretary I'm going to be a very happy bettor.

What makes it better than a regular casino is rather than just transferring money from gamblers to the house, prediction markets transfer money from gamblers to people building and through the market sharing accurate models of how the world works.

You can bet on how much the budget will get cut by this year. Trump says hopefully 1 trillion. Market says 8% chance he cuts 1 trillion and 60% chance he doesn't cut overall spending this year. kalshi.com/markets/kxgovt…

Finally took the time to play around on a spreadsheet and the ROI on negative risking a market without collateral returns is abysmal. Like 3%, like if you spent $1000 to get 100 no shares for each bracket, you win $30 bucks. . .

It could also go to multiple people, a scenario I was aware of, but thought was unlikely. Worst trade of 2025 for me. I even tried to fade the "insider" AI yes buying and sold out of my AI no position at a loss.