Biggest US-China political risks are the two T's: Trade and Taiwan.

A theme of early 2022 seems to be borrowers locking in low funding costs before interest rates rise. Top-rated US corporations are selling debt at an elevated clip, creating a technical pressure on Treasury yields. High-grade yields are about the highest since May 2020.

Value of the world's negative-yielding debt falls below $10 trillion for the first time since early 2020.

The Software group entered a bear market with $IGV now down over 20% and giving up 2 year's Alpha in just the last 2 months. "Markets take the stairs up & the elevator shaft down."

The volume of negative yielding debt outstanding has fallen to the lowest since March 2020, to $9.1 trillion.

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Real yields become the least negative since June 2020.

"A modest consumer credit cycle is unfolding, w/very willing lenders on one side but cash-rich consumers on the other...We expect real consumer spending to climb 3% y/y in 2022...But it is likely to be led by services spending..Services spending is less credit drive:" Cornerstone

Credit traders have long enjoyed a reputation as being the first ones to detect downturns, but this time around they probably won't act as the early warning signal for stocks and other risk assets that they once did. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The amount of negative-yielding debt outstanding has dropped to the lowest since March 2020.

"A record amount of stimulus is about to be withdrawn from the global economy...From May 2022 to May 2023, Morgan Stanley economists expect G4 central bank balance sheets to shrink by $2 trillion, four times the largest 12-month decline ever, from 2018-19:" MS's Andrew Sheets

The share of Americans who say it’s a good time to buy a house hit an all-time low in January while 69% of respondents to a Fannie Mae survey said it’s a good time to sell, an all-time high in the series that dates back to 2010. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Aluminum prices are at the highest levels since 2008 and closing in on a new record.

The pool of negative-yielding bonds has plunged by about two-thirds since late December, from $14.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion as of yesterday.

Pricing of a half-point rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting went from about 28% before figures to around 50% now, via Liz Capo McCormick

Stocks keep rallying because the Fed is still way behind the curve when it comes to inflation, allowing the economy to run hot: Credit Suisse's Jon Golub. "Not only is the rate too low today, but it will likely be too low even after the Fed completes its projected rate hikes."

Investors pulled cash from bonds, stocks, gold and even cash, with $19.3 billion leaving IG, HY and EM debt, the biggest withdrawal since April 2020: BofA & EPFR Global. “The definition of true capitulation is investors selling what they love:" BofA's Michael Hartnett

Homebuyers are moving toward ARM mortgages just as the Fed embarks on its tightening cycle. Not a great combination for an already stretched housing market.

The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions index is about the most negative since May 2020.