My take in U.S. News & World Report on the opportunity for a third party to change American politics, if it can deny either party a majority in the House and act as king-maker. usnews.com/opinion/articl…

My interview on Bloomberg TV Bloomberg Balance of Power with the great Joe Mathieu, where we discussed Trade, Tariffs and the Fed. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Enjoyed the conversation with Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall on Bloomberg TV Balance of Power just after the Japan agreement and ahead of the U.S. EU meeting in Scotland. With both, the devil is in the details and the details are scarce leaving much room for future confusion

Thanks to the Council on Foreign Relations for including me on a great #WorldEconomicUpdate panel hosted by Sebastian Mallaby, along with Alexis Crow and Adam Posen on which we tried to make sense of it all... youtube.com/live/IJIueNWx4…

World Economic Forum Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, at #GCF2025 on the need for public-private sector collaboration to protect critical infrastructure in an interconnected world.

Heidi Crebo-Rediker 🌻 🇺🇸🇺🇦 and I wrote this for the Financial Times / FT Alphaville - US intervention in Argentina sends a worrying signal about politicizing US financial firepower. Are Fed swap lines next? IMF quotas should be increased to prepare for the next crisis. on.ft.com/4pPdCOz

Markets continue to test Argentine peso & whether US will step in with real $. But bigger risks are embedded in the politicization of US financial firepower - what if the Fed (under a new Chair) is pressed by the WH to withhold support, would the IMF be able to step in?

Great fun to join annmarie hordern and Lisa Abramowicz on Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg Surveillance yesterday morning to discuss U.S. financial support for Argentina. My segment begins at 41:43. youtu.be/nEBSpgKy1-Q?si… 1/6

I made the points that while the Milei government deserves credit for strong fiscal reforms, they have failed to close the deal on monetary policy putting stress on the peso exchange rate that will be tested by the markets even with American support. 2/6

The Treasury “swap” isn’t actually a swap, it’s a loan from the Exchange Stabilization Fund which requires by law that repayment is assured, which means not only interest, but collateral. All of which is undisclosed. As is the nature of US intervention in the peso market. 3/6

The IMF has already extended the biggest program in its history to Argentina, including $20b earlier this year, of which $12b was front-loaded with the expectation that Argentina would use it to boost reserves. They didn’t. Now, they have negative net reserves. 5/6

The argument that the U.S. wants to push China out of Argentina doesn’t work. China has $18b swap lines extended to Argentina, so pushing them out means the entire US $20b would effectively just keep Argentina where it already is. 6/6

US purchase of pesos in the market “naked” - without any protection from losses, puts US at risk that Secretary Bessent’s argument that the peso is undervalued is almost certainly going to be tested. 4/6

Great interview and some life lessons from Heidi Crebo-Rediker 🌻 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Council on Foreign Relations

BREAKING: After talking to Secretary Marco Rubio, Senator Mike Rounds announces that the 28 point plan was a Russian document, not a US document. Full Senator Mike Rounds: "Secretary Marco Rubio did make a phone call to us this afternoon. I think he made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a

Great to join Joe Mathieu & Amara Omeokwe on Bloomberg Balance of Power to talk about prospects for Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair. Markets seem divided. Some think it’s business as usual & others worry about Fed’s independence & political capture. lnkd.in/eud2Ki6W