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A big lesson of 2024 was that extremism loses votes — and the sooner we stop pretending that Americans are secret lefties/MAGA diehards waiting to be sold on a big, bold message, the better we’ll understand what happened. For our Washington Post column: wapo.st/3EQgLL4

Presenting the 2024 PA Auditor General election by precinct. Very poor showing for now-DNC Vice Chair Malcolm Kenyatta. Among other things, I was absolutely not expecting any Dems to outright lose Dauphin county (he was not the only one to do so).

I think it's worth noting that excluding the cities of Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster, Dutch Pennsylvania as a whole shifted leftward last year

Presenting the 2024 PA Treasurer election by precinct. 🔵McClelland was only statewide Dem candidate to lose both Dauphin and Lehigh counties. 🔴Stacy Garrity won the most votes for Treasurer in PA ever, beating the record set by 🔵Bob Casey Jr in his run for Treasurer in '04.

1000 follower milestone map! The Northeast Corridor has long been the most urbanized area in the country. Though the region has remained firmly Democratic for decades, the GOP has made major inroads here in the Trump era. Here is a map of Harris' performance last year. A🧵 1/x

Presenting 2024 Congressional overperformance. Several standouts here including Matt Cartwright, Janelle Stelson, Brian Fitzpatrick, Brendan Boyle, Susan Wild, and Chris Deluzio. The only Democratic incumbent to do worse than Harris was Summer Lee. x.com/DemHackMaps/st…

You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a Gubernatorial race in PA where the Democratic candidate got less than 54.9% of the vote.

#ElectionTwitter Here's a dot map of the shift in raw votes by county in Pennsylvania from 1956-1960. Kennedy netted hundreds of thousands of new votes in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre, which far outweighed the gains that Nixon made in Central Pennsylvania.

Presenting 2024 Senate over-performance. Blue is where Bob Casey did better. Red is where Harris did better (or another way to look at it: red is where McCormick did better). Harris actually got more votes and a higher percent than Casey, but lost by a larger % margin.

I have seen Democrats say they need to pick white men to win again. This is incredibly stupid, because the data shows that voters do not care about identity politics in the way that Democratic elites think they do. New piece from us for Washington Post Opinions wapo.st/4l0Gl0G

With Election Night Results finished Democrat James Malone appears to have Flipped Pennsylvania's 36th Senate District after Trump won it by ~15% in 2024 the district covers around half of Lancaster County.

Some added context for that flip last night.

This pattern didn't really hold up as well in 2024.

hey i wonder where everyone in the 2016 PA AG Dem primary is from?

ferald gord This is the 2014 Lt. Gov Dem Primary. Where do you think everyone’s home county is?

It's out! 80 years ago, in 1945, when WW II ended, East Prussia was wiped out. Historically the area was German but with sizable Lithuanian, Polish, and Masurian minorities. I have digitized the *entire* East Prussian census of 1905. Read more for never before seen maps:🧵

I do want people to grapple with this: if "whites are very racist" was the driver behind Kamala Harris running behind Biden, as I've seen bandied about in liberal (and donor!) circles, then the white rurals in PA should not have been the places she did best in, relative to 2020.

The 1998 Senate Election in Pennsylvania saw incumbent GOP Senator Arlen Specter win reelection in a landslide. Specter was pro-choice and endorsed by the AFL-CIO. His Democratic opponent was pro-life, and, as shown by the map, virtually unknown outside of Somerset County.